Introduction: A Strong Thursday Rally Boosts Market Sentiment
The Indian stock market witnessed a powerful rally on Thursday, October 16, led by robust buying in banking, FMCG, and auto sectors. The Sensex surged by 862 points (1.04%) to close at 83,467, while the Nifty 50 advanced 262 points (1.03%) to settle at 25,585. This impressive upswing marks the highest level for the Sensex since July 2025, signaling renewed investor confidence driven by Q2FY26 earnings optimism, India–US trade negotiations, and declining crude oil prices.
Experts suggest that the rally reflects broad-based buying momentum, with investors showing positive sentiment toward monetary easing expectations and a strong domestic growth outlook.
Market Overview: Sensex and Nifty Extend Gains
The Nifty 50 and Sensex extended their winning streak for the third consecutive session, supported by strong global cues and positive institutional flows. Key highlights from Thursday’s session include:
Sensex: 83,467 (+862 points, +1.04%)
Nifty 50: 25,585 (+262 points, +1.03%)
Bank Nifty: 53,420 (+0.98%)
Nifty Midcap 100: +1.12%
Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.46%
The broad-based participation across market segments reflects renewed investor optimism and healthy corporate earnings momentum in Q2FY26.
Key Drivers Behind the Market Rally
1. Q2FY26 Earnings Momentum
The second-quarter earnings season has played a pivotal role in boosting market sentiment. Companies in banking, FMCG, and auto sectors reported strong year-on-year revenue growth and healthy profit margins, indicating resilient consumer demand and efficient cost management.
Top Q2 Gainers:
HDFC Bank: Reported a 13% YoY increase in net profit.
Reliance Industries: Energy and retail segments outperformed expectations.
Maruti Suzuki: Posted record quarterly sales backed by robust festive demand.
2. Optimism Over India–US Trade Talks
Investor sentiment soared amid renewed optimism surrounding India–US trade negotiations. The proposed bilateral discussions aim to enhance trade in technology, agriculture, defense, and clean energy sectors.
If finalized, the India–US trade deal could strengthen India’s export competitiveness and attract more foreign direct investments (FDIs) in strategic industries such as semiconductors and EV manufacturing.
3. Declining Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have witnessed a consistent decline due to increased supply from OPEC+ members and moderated global demand. For India, a major oil importer, lower crude prices translate into:
Reduced inflationary pressure
Lower fiscal deficit
Improved corporate margins, especially for aviation, paint, and logistics companies
This development has particularly benefited IndiGo, Asian Paints, and InterGlobe Aviation stocks, which saw notable gains on Thursday.
4. RBI’s Monetary Easing Expectations
Market participants are anticipating a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its December policy meeting, given the decline in inflation and stable economic indicators. A softer monetary stance could:
Lower borrowing costs
Encourage credit growth
Boost equity valuations across rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate, banking, and automobiles
Technical Analysis: Nifty 50 Trade Setup for Friday
Nifty 50 Chart Outlook
According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty 50 index breached the crucial resistance level of 25,500, indicating a swing high breakout. The breakout pattern signals a strong bullish continuation, supported by higher volumes and positive momentum indicators.
Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Resistance: 25,750 – 25,800
Support Zone: 25,500 – 25,420
Next Upside Target: 25,950 – 26,000
RSI and Momentum Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward with a bullish crossover at 63, reflecting strong momentum. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator also supports further upward movement, confirming that bulls are likely to retain control in the short term.
Global Market Trends: Wall Street, Asian, and European Cues
Wall Street Gains Ahead of Earnings Season
The U.S. markets ended higher overnight as investors awaited Q3 corporate results and guidance from the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones: +0.83%
S&P 500: +0.91%
Nasdaq Composite: +1.12%
The dovish remarks from the US Fed and a weaker dollar index have encouraged foreign portfolio inflows into emerging markets like India.
Asian Markets Show Mixed Trends
Asian markets opened cautiously on Friday following a rebound in U.S. equities.
Nikkei 225: +0.56%
Hang Seng: -0.21%
Shanghai Composite: +0.34%
European Market Highlights
European indices closed positive, supported by strong industrial data and easing inflation numbers.
FTSE 100: +0.45%
DAX: +0.62%
CAC 40: +0.58%
Gold and Silver Prices Update: October 17
The gold market remains steady amid a softer U.S. dollar and global uncertainty.
City
Gold (24K/10g)
Silver (1kg)
Mumbai
₹72,480
₹92,600
Delhi
₹72,650
₹92,850
Chennai
₹72,320
₹92,100
Kolkata
₹72,510
₹92,300
Hyderabad
₹72,420
₹92,400
Investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid geopolitical tensions and currency market volatility. Experts expect gold to trade between ₹72,000 – ₹73,200 per 10 grams in the near term.
Reliance Industries Q2FY26 Results Preview
Reliance Industries (RIL) is set to announce its Q2FY26 earnings later this week. Analysts expect:
Revenue Growth: +8% YoY
Refining Margins: Expected to improve due to stable crude spreads
Retail and Jio Segments: To contribute over 55% of overall EBITDA
Key Factors to Watch:
ARPU (Average Revenue per User) growth in Jio Telecom
Expansion of Reliance Retail’s digital and grocery business
Updates on the company’s renewable energy and green hydrogen investments
Expert Opinions: Market Outlook for Samvat 2082
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services:
“The strong rebound in domestic equities has been fueled by encouraging global cues, robust Q2 earnings, and optimism around India–US trade agreements. We expect this momentum to continue through Samvat 2082, supported by improving demand in the festive season.”
Abhinav Tiwari, Bonanza Research Analyst:
“FMCG and banking sectors have shown leadership in this rally. With inflation under control and crude prices easing, India remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in Asia.”
Top 8 Stocks to Buy Today (October 17, 2025)
1. Reliance Industries (RIL)
CMP: ₹2,620
Target: ₹2,780
Reason: Strong retail and digital growth, improving GRMs, and stable telecom performance.
View: Buy on dips
2. HDFC Bank
CMP: ₹1,620
Target: ₹1,750
Reason: Strong loan book growth, improving margins, and stable asset quality.
View: Accumulate
3. Tata Motors
CMP: ₹1,060
Target: ₹1,150
Reason: Robust sales in EV and passenger vehicles, global JLR turnaround, and positive Q2 earnings.
View: Buy
4. Larsen & Toubro (L&T)
CMP: ₹3,240
Target: ₹3,450
Reason: Strong order inflow, infrastructure boom, and stable execution pipeline.
View: Long-term buy
5. ITC Ltd
CMP: ₹485
Target: ₹525
Reason: Consistent FMCG growth, stable cigarette segment, and diversification into food products.
View: Buy
6. Infosys Ltd
CMP: ₹1,575
Target: ₹1,700
Reason: Strong deal pipeline, digital transformation projects, and margin stability.
View: Accumulate
7. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd
CMP: ₹11,820
Target: ₹12,400
Reason: Record festive demand, hybrid vehicle launches, and margin recovery.
View: Buy
8. State Bank of India (SBI)
CMP: ₹875
Target: ₹940
Reason: Strong loan growth, improved asset quality, and higher NIM guidance.
View: Buy for medium-term
Sectoral Performance Snapshot
Sector
Change (%)
Key Drivers
Auto
+1.27
Festive sales momentum, strong demand
FMCG
+1.53
Rural recovery, margin improvement
Banking
+1.04
Earnings optimism, improved credit growth
Metals
+0.88
Higher export orders
Realty
+1.12
Low mortgage rates, festive demand
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Activity
FIIs turned net buyers on October 16, purchasing equities worth ₹2,760 crore, reversing the outflow trend seen earlier in the month. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also bought ₹1,120 crore worth of equities, supporting the market rally.
Nifty Outlook for the Coming Week
Analysts expect the Nifty 50 to trade in the range of 25,400–25,950 in the near term. Short-term traders should look for buy-on-dips opportunities as the technical and fundamental outlook remains positive.
Key triggers to watch next week:
Reliance Industries’ Q2FY26 results
India–US trade talks developments
Crude oil and rupee movement
US Fed officials’ commentary on rate outlook
Conclusion: Bulls Hold the Reins Ahead of Festive Season
The Indian stock market remains in a bullish phase, supported by strong earnings, favorable macroeconomic data, and easing crude oil prices. As India heads into the festive and Samvat 2082 season, investor optimism is at its peak.
With the Nifty 50 poised to test 25,800–26,000, traders are advised to remain cautiously optimistic while focusing on quality large-cap and banking stocks.
