The Indian stock market has been under pressure for the past week, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex extending their losing streak. On Monday, September 29, the benchmarks closed lower, dragged by global market weakness and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy announcement. As we move into Tuesday’s trade on September 30, 2025, investors are closely watching the key levels of Nifty 50, Sensex, and Bank Nifty to understand the short-term direction of the market.
Indian Stock Market Closing Highlights on September 29
- Sensex closed at 80,364.94, down 61.52 points (0.08%).
- Nifty 50 settled at 24,634.90, losing 19.80 points (0.08%).
- The benchmarks slipped for the seventh consecutive session, reflecting persistent selling pressure.
- Bank Nifty also witnessed weakness amid mixed global cues and profit booking.
Gift Nifty Trends: Positive Start Likely
The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,707, indicating a premium of nearly 22 points compared to the Nifty futures’ previous close. This suggests a mildly positive opening for the Indian stock market on September 30.
Market experts believe the opening will be influenced by:
- Global market sentiment
- Crude oil price movement
- Rupee-dollar trends
- RBI’s upcoming monetary policy decision
Sensex Today: What to Expect
The Sensex outlook remains cautious as technical charts signal a bearish trend.
Key Technical Levels for Sensex
- Immediate resistance: 80,800
- Upside target if breakout occurs: 81,000 – 81,300
- Immediate support: 80,300
- Downside target if breached: 80,000 – 79,800
Expert Views on Sensex
📌 Shrikant Chouhan, Kotak Securities:
- Sensex is forming a lower top pattern on intraday charts.
- Short-term outlook is weak, but oversold conditions may trigger a pullback rally.
- Crossing 80,800 could fuel gains toward 81,300.
- Below 80,300, selling may intensify, dragging the index to 79,800 levels.
📌 Mayank Jain, Share.Market (PhonePe Wealth):
- Market is in a holding pattern ahead of the RBI policy.
- A move above 80,880 can trigger minor gains.
- A fall below 80,320 may add to selling pressure.
- RBI commentary and global market cues will drive market direction.
Nifty 50 Prediction for September 30
The Nifty 50 is trading below the crucial 24,700 level, signaling cautious sentiment.
Nifty OI Data Analysis
- Highest call writing: 24,700 & 24,800 strikes
- Maximum put OI: 24,600 strike
- Indicates strong resistance near 24,800
- Support base seen around 24,600
📌 Amruta Shinde, Choice Broking:
- Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic.
- A decisive close above 24,800 will be essential for bullish momentum.
- Failure to cross this level may keep the market range-bound.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Bank Nifty index has mirrored the weakness in broader markets due to heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI facing selling pressure.
Key Levels for Bank Nifty
- Resistance zone: 52,000 – 52,200
- Support zone: 51,200 – 51,000
- A break below support could drag it toward 50,800 levels.
Factors Driving the Indian Stock Market Today
Several domestic and global cues will influence trading in the Indian equity market on September 30:
1. RBI Monetary Policy
- RBI is set to announce its monetary policy decision later this week.
- Markets expect the repo rate to remain unchanged, but commentary on inflation and growth will be key.
2. Global Market Cues
- US and Asian markets remain volatile amid recession fears.
- Concerns over US Federal Reserve’s interest rate path are impacting investor sentiment.
3. Crude Oil Prices
- Brent crude prices remain elevated, raising concerns about India’s import bill and inflation outlook.
4. Rupee vs Dollar
- The Indian Rupee continues to face pressure against the US dollar.
- A weaker rupee may weigh on foreign investor sentiment.
Stock Market Strategy for Traders
For day traders and short-term investors, the following points are crucial:
- Nifty 50 intraday resistance: 24,700 – 24,800
- Nifty 50 intraday support: 24,600 – 24,500
- Sensex support: 80,300 – 80,000
- Sensex resistance: 80,800 – 81,300
- Bank Nifty support: 51,200
- Bank Nifty resistance: 52,200
📌 Trading Strategy:
- Consider buying on dips near support levels with a strict stop loss.
- Book profits near resistance zones.
- Avoid aggressive positions ahead of RBI’s monetary policy outcome.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism Ahead
- The Indian stock market is expected to open slightly higher on September 30, supported by Gift Nifty cues.
- However, overall sentiment remains cautious due to weak global cues and RBI policy uncertainty.
- Traders should remain vigilant and adopt a buy-on-dips strategy only if key support levels hold.
- A breakout above 24,800 for Nifty and 80,800 for Sensex could trigger a short-term rally.
Key Takeaways for September 30, 2025
- Sensex resistance at 80,800, support at 80,300.
- Nifty 50 resistance at 24,800, support at 24,600.
- Bank Nifty resistance at 52,200, support at 51,200.
- Market trend will depend on RBI commentary, global cues, and FIIs activity.
- Cautious optimism remains the theme, with limited upside until strong breakouts occur.
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