The Indian stock market is set for a cautious start on Friday, September 26, as global cues remain weak and investor sentiment continues to be weighed down by geopolitical concerns, US tariffs, and uncertainty around interest rate cuts. The Gift Nifty is pointing to a negative opening for benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50, while global market trends, US GDP data, and corporate earnings like Accenture results are keeping traders on edge.
Market Recap: Thursday’s Bloodbath
- On Thursday, the Sensex crashed by 555.95 points or 0.68% to close at 81,159.68.
- The Nifty 50 dropped by 166.05 points, or 0.66%, to settle at 24,890.85.
- This marked the fifth consecutive session of losses, dragging market confidence lower.
- Broader indices also ended in the red as foreign investor outflows and weak rupee trends continued to impact equities.
Market analysts believe that the downward momentum could continue as global risks intensify.
1. Gift Nifty Trends
- Gift Nifty today was trading near 24,902, at a discount of 66 points compared to the previous Nifty futures close.
- This signals a negative start for Indian benchmark indices.
- Weak cues from Wall Street and Asian equities are likely to add pressure on early trade.
2. Trump’s New Tariffs Impact
- US President Donald Trump announced fresh tariffs on a range of products, including pharmaceutical goods, furniture, and heavy trucks.
- The move sparked fears of escalating trade tensions, especially with major exporting nations like India.
- Analysts warn that Indian pharma and auto-related sectors could face global headwinds due to tariff escalations.
3. Weak Global Market Sentiment
- Asian markets opened lower on Friday, tracking Wall Street losses.
- Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and South Korea’s Kospi all saw sharp declines.
- Investors are worried about slowing global growth, higher commodity prices, and geopolitical risks.
4. Wall Street Overnight
- US markets ended lower on Thursday after stronger-than-expected US GDP data raised concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next move.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 370 points.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also closed in the red.
- Traders now fear that the Fed may delay aggressive rate cuts, which was earlier expected in late 2025.
5. US GDP Data Raises Concerns
- The latest GDP numbers showed that the US economy remains resilient, contrary to slowdown expectations.
- While growth is positive for businesses, it signals the Fed may not rush into cutting rates.
- This has increased volatility in equity, bond, and commodity markets globally.
6. Rupee Weakness Adds Pressure
- The Indian Rupee has been sliding against the US dollar due to stronger US data and foreign capital outflows.
- On Thursday, the rupee closed near ₹84.05 per dollar, raising import cost concerns.
- Currency weakness impacts sectors like oil, metals, and electronics that rely heavily on imports.
7. Accenture Results and IT Sector Impact
- Accenture’s quarterly results showed cautious commentary on IT spending.
- This has implications for Indian IT giants like Infosys, TCS, Wipro, and HCL Tech.
- A slowdown in global outsourcing and consulting spends could impact India’s IT export revenues.
8. Commodity Prices Remain High
- Crude oil prices remain elevated, hovering around $95 per barrel, raising inflationary concerns.
- Gold prices have also firmed up as investors seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and trade tensions.
- Rising input costs could pressure corporate margins in the upcoming quarterly results season.
9. FII and DII Activity
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued to sell Indian equities, pulling out nearly ₹2,500 crore on Thursday.
- Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) attempted to absorb some selling but could not prevent the slide.
- Persistent FII selling has been a major drag on markets in September.
10. Outlook on India–US Trade Talks
- With new US tariffs in play, attention shifts to India–US trade discussions.
- Any progress or setback in talks could significantly impact export-oriented sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and automobiles.
- Market participants will track these developments closely in the coming days.
Expert View: What Analysts Are Saying
According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research (Wealth Management) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services:
“We expect markets to remain under pressure in the near term, tracking global headwinds, macroeconomic data releases, and developments around the India–US trade talks. Concerns over economic growth persist amid the impact of rising global commodity prices, weakening rupee, and US tariffs adding to investor caution.”
Key Levels to Watch Today
- Nifty 50 support levels: 24,750 and 24,600
- Nifty 50 resistance levels: 25,050 and 25,200
- Sensex support: 80,800
- Sensex resistance: 81,800
A breach below support levels could trigger further selling pressure, while a strong bounce from support may provide relief to traders.
Stock Market Strategy for Investors
- Short-term traders should remain cautious and avoid aggressive positions.
- Investors with long-term outlook can look for buying opportunities in quality stocks during corrections.
- Sectors to watch:
- Pharma: Impacted by US tariffs.
- IT stocks: Weak global outsourcing demand.
- Banking and financials: Sensitive to rupee movement and bond yields.
- Energy and oil stocks: Rising crude may provide mixed trends.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market today is staring at a weak start as Gift Nifty signals losses, Wall Street declines weigh on sentiment, and new Trump tariffs raise trade war concerns. Add to that US GDP data, Accenture results, and rupee weakness, and the near-term outlook for Sensex and Nifty remains under pressure.
Investors should brace for volatility and keep an eye on key global and domestic triggers before taking fresh positions.
