Overview
The Indian stock market is set for a cautious start on Tuesday, November 5, 2025, as global cues turned mixed overnight. The Gift Nifty is trading with a slight discount, hinting at a muted opening for the benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50. While Wall Street closed on a mixed note, Asian markets showed weakness early this morning. Meanwhile, a landmark $38 billion Amazon-OpenAI deal and weak US manufacturing PMI data have added new dynamics to the global market sentiment.
1. Gift Nifty Indicates a Soft Start for Indian Markets
The Gift Nifty — an indicator of how Indian markets may open — was trading around 25,869 levels, down nearly 30 points from the previous Nifty futures close. This reflects a negative-to-flat start for the Indian equity markets today.
Key Highlights:
- Gift Nifty at 25,869, showing a 30-point discount.
- Indicates mild weakness or consolidation for the Nifty 50 and Sensex.
- Global sentiment remains cautious due to mixed economic signals.
Market Outlook:
According to experts, traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-watch strategy as the market looks for fresh triggers in the form of corporate earnings, trade updates, and global cues. Analysts suggest focusing on large-cap and mid-cap stocks with strong fundamentals.
“Going ahead, corporate earnings and trade deal developments are likely to guide market direction, in the absence of major triggers. Amid this setup, we continue to recommend a selective approach, focusing on sectors showing relative strength,”
said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
2. Previous Session Recap: Market Ends Flat with Positive Bias
On Monday, the Indian stock market witnessed a choppy trading session but ended slightly higher, led by selective buying in banking and IT counters.
Sensex and Nifty Performance:
- Sensex: Gained 39.78 points (0.05%) to close at 83,978.49.
- Nifty 50: Added 41.25 points (0.16%) to settle at 25,763.35.
Sectoral Highlights:
- IT and banking stocks supported the indices.
- Auto and FMCG stocks remained under mild pressure.
- Broader market indices outperformed large caps, showing resilience in mid- and small-cap stocks.
Market analysts expect this range-bound pattern to continue unless a strong global or domestic trigger emerges.
3. Asian Markets Trade Lower Amid Global Uncertainty
Asian equity markets opened lower on Tuesday, reflecting investor caution after weak manufacturing data from the US and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Regional Market Performance:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225: Down 0.39%.
- Topix Index: Fell 0.23%.
- South Korea’s Kospi: Dropped 0.32%, while the Kosdaq gained 0.24%.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Futures: Indicate a negative opening.
Key Drivers in Asia:
- Global investors are closely tracking US economic data and central bank policy statements.
- Rising oil prices and geopolitical developments have added further uncertainty.
- The weakening Chinese yuan and sluggish factory output in China are weighing on regional sentiment.
Asian markets are expected to remain volatile throughout the day as traders await clarity on US policy direction and tech sector earnings.
4. Wall Street Closes Mixed; Tech Stocks Lead Gains
The US stock market ended Monday’s session on a mixed note. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managed to edge higher, primarily supported by gains in technology stocks.
US Indices Performance:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Declined 226.19 points (0.48%) to 47,336.68.
- S&P 500: Gained 11.77 points (0.17%) to close at 6,851.97.
- Nasdaq Composite: Advanced 109.77 points (0.46%) to settle higher.
Market Drivers:
- Tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon led the rally.
- Concerns over slowing US manufacturing weighed on industrial and energy stocks.
- Investors are factoring in the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, with expectations leaning toward a prolonged rate pause.
Wall Street’s performance remains crucial for Indian markets, as global risk appetite directly impacts foreign investor flows into emerging markets like India.
5. US Manufacturing PMI Contracts for the Eighth Straight Month
The latest US manufacturing PMI data showed continued contraction, signaling a slowdown in industrial activity. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October, down from 49.1 in September, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction.
Key PMI Takeaways:
- PMI at 48.7, below the 50-mark threshold, indicates contraction.
- Economists had expected a rise to 49.5, but actual figures disappointed.
- Despite contraction, PMI remained above 42.3, indicating the overall economy is still expanding modestly.
Market Implications:
- A weak PMI reflects cooling industrial demand, which could ease inflationary pressures.
- However, sustained weakness may signal broader economic deceleration.
- Traders expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady amid slowing growth indicators.
This data has raised questions about the durability of the US recovery, putting pressure on global market sentiment.
6. Amazon and OpenAI Sign a $38 Billion AI Infrastructure Deal
In a landmark development that could reshape the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape, Amazon and OpenAI have signed a $38 billion deal enabling the ChatGPT creator to run its AI models on Amazon’s data centers in the United States.
Deal Details:
- OpenAI will utilize Amazon Web Services (AWS) infrastructure to power its next-generation AI systems.
- The collaboration involves using hundreds of thousands of Nvidia AI chips hosted in Amazon’s global data centers.
- This strategic partnership strengthens Amazon’s position in the AI infrastructure market, challenging Microsoft’s Azure dominance.
Why This Matters to Markets:
- The deal signals a massive expansion of AI-driven investments, boosting global tech sentiment.
- It positions Amazon as a direct infrastructure partner to one of the most valuable AI startups.
- Investors view this as a long-term growth catalyst for the broader technology sector.
This development also underscores how AI partnerships are becoming the next big driver of stock market valuations worldwide.
7. Crude Oil Prices and Currency Movements
Global crude oil prices remained volatile, with Brent crude hovering around $87 per barrel amid concerns over supply cuts and geopolitical tensions.
Market Snapshot:
- Brent Crude: $87.04 per barrel, down 0.28%.
- WTI Crude: $82.45 per barrel, marginally lower.
- US Dollar Index (DXY): Stable near 104.8 levels.
- Indian Rupee: Expected to open slightly weaker around ₹83.27 per USD, tracking global cues.
Impact on Indian Markets:
- Higher crude prices could weigh on import-heavy sectors like oil marketing companies and aviation.
- The rupee’s trajectory will be closely monitored by foreign investors, as volatility impacts FII flows.
- A stable USD and cooling commodity prices could provide short-term relief for the Indian economy.
8. Market Strategy: What Traders Should Watch Today
As the market opens, investors are advised to trade cautiously amid mixed global signals and limited domestic triggers.
Key Factors to Track:
- Gift Nifty and FII/DII activity for early market sentiment.
- Corporate earnings updates from key Nifty companies.
- Crude oil and currency movements affecting inflation outlook.
- Global tech developments, especially the Amazon-OpenAI deal.
- US economic data releases, particularly on inflation and job growth.
Expert View:
Analysts expect sector rotation to continue, with defensive and technology stocks outperforming.
“Traders should maintain moderate position sizes and focus on fundamentally strong sectors like banking, IT, and capital goods,” experts suggest.
Preferred Sectors for Short-Term Gains:
- IT and AI-related stocks
- Banking and NBFCs
- Infrastructure and energy
- Auto and FMCG (selective exposure)
Technical Outlook:
- Nifty 50 support: 25,720; Resistance: 25,950.
- Sensex support: 83,800; Resistance: 84,200.
A break below these support zones could trigger mild profit booking, while a close above resistance levels might signal bullish momentum resumption.
Conclusion: Markets Eye Stability Amid Mixed Global Trends
The Indian stock market today is expected to open cautiously, mirroring global uncertainty. The Gift Nifty’s slight discount, coupled with weak Asian cues and a mixed Wall Street close, may keep traders on edge. However, positive developments like the Amazon-OpenAI partnership are likely to support sentiment in technology-driven sectors.
While the broader economic outlook remains steady, investors should remain selective, focusing on large-cap stocks, stable earnings, and sectors resilient to global volatility. The coming sessions will likely set the tone for November trading, making it a critical period for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
