Overview: Indian Markets Poised for Flat Opening Amid Global Cues
The Indian stock market is expected to open on a muted note today, as global trends remain mixed and investors continue to assess trade negotiations, inflation data, and commodity price movements. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,212 levels, showing a discount of nearly 13 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, suggesting a flat start for domestic indices.
On Tuesday, Indian markets extended their winning streak for the fourth consecutive session. The Sensex closed higher by 136.63 points (0.17%) at 81,926.75, while the Nifty 50 rose 30.65 points (0.12%) to settle at 25,108.30.
Experts believe that the markets will likely remain range-bound in the near term, with sector-specific actions, festive demand, and quarterly earnings results driving investor sentiment.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, said,
“We expect Indian equities to remain range-bound in the near term, driven by sectoral developments, festive demand trends, and upcoming earnings announcements.”
1. Gift Nifty Signals Flat Opening
- The Gift Nifty on Wednesday indicated a subdued start for Indian markets, trading around 25,212, about 13 points below the previous close of Nifty futures.
- This suggests a marginally weaker or flat opening for the Indian stock indices — Nifty 50 and Sensex.
- Investors are likely to take cues from global market trends, corporate earnings reports, and upcoming macroeconomic data releases.
Key takeaway:
Market volatility may persist as traders await cues from both domestic and international developments.
2. India-US Trade Talks Back in Focus
India and the United States have resumed discussions on the long-anticipated Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Union Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that both sides are aiming to meet the November 2025 deadline for a potential trade pact.
- The ongoing dialogue aims to enhance bilateral investment, reduce trade barriers, and strengthen supply chain partnerships.
- The US remains India’s largest trading partner, and progress on this deal could boost export-oriented sectors such as pharmaceuticals, IT services, and textiles.
Market Impact:
A successful trade deal could strengthen the rupee and enhance India’s position as a global manufacturing hub.
3. Keir Starmer’s India Visit: Strengthening UK-India Relations
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins a two-day official visit to India on Wednesday. Accompanied by over 100 leaders from the business, cultural, and academic sectors, his visit aims to bolster trade and educational ties between India and the UK.
- The visit follows a recently signed trade agreement between the two nations, which is expected to deepen cooperation in technology, renewable energy, and higher education.
- British investors are likely to explore India’s renewable, infrastructure, and digital sectors.
Market Implication:
The visit could attract fresh foreign investments into Indian markets, particularly in green technology and education sectors.
4. Japan Real Wages Continue to Fall
Japan’s economic data released on Tuesday revealed that real wages dropped for the eighth consecutive month in August, down 1.4% year-on-year.
This decline reflects the erosion of household purchasing power due to persistent inflationary pressures.
- Real wages, adjusted for inflation, have been falling consistently since early 2024.
- Economists believe Japan’s weak wage growth could hinder its post-pandemic recovery and limit consumer spending.
Global Market Reaction:
The decline in Japan’s real wages could impact Asian market sentiment, as lower consumer demand might affect exports and manufacturing-linked companies.
5. US Market Update: Mixed Trends Ahead of Earnings Season
Overnight, US markets ended on a mixed note as investors digested economic data and corporate earnings reports.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped marginally by 0.25%,
- S&P 500 declined by 0.1%,
- Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%, supported by select tech stocks.
Stock Highlights:
- Nvidia share price fell 0.25%.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose 3.8%.
- Intel gained 1.7%, signaling optimism in semiconductor recovery.
- IBM climbed 1.5%, and Constellation Brands rose 1%.
- Trilogy Metals shares soared 207.8%, while AppLovin surged 7.6% on strong earnings guidance.
Implication for Indian Investors:
Global tech rally and resilient US earnings may support sentiment in Indian IT stocks during Wednesday’s trade.
6. Gold Prices Near $4,000 Mark — All-Time High
Gold prices surged to a record high, nearing the $4,000-per-ounce mark in international markets.
- Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,995.14 per ounce, after touching a new high of $3,999.09.
- US gold futures (December delivery) also climbed 0.3% to $4,016.30.
The rally is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation fears, and central bank purchases.
Analysts say investors are viewing gold as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility and global political tensions.
Impact on Indian Markets:
- Domestic gold prices are expected to rise sharply, potentially crossing ₹76,000 per 10 grams.
- Gold ETFs and jewellery stocks could see positive momentum in today’s trading session.
7. Dollar Strengthens to Six-Week High
The US dollar index rose 0.50% to 98.616, its highest level since August 27, signaling strong global demand for the greenback.
- Against the Japanese yen, the dollar traded at 152.205, up 0.2%.
- The euro was stable at $1.1655, while sterling edged up 0.1% to $1.3429.
- The offshore Chinese yuan traded flat at 7.1469 per dollar.
Why it matters:
A stronger dollar typically leads to foreign portfolio outflows from emerging markets like India, as global investors seek safer assets. This could put pressure on the Indian rupee and import-heavy sectors.
8. Crude Oil and Commodity Watch
Oil prices remained volatile as markets balanced supply concerns with weaker demand forecasts.
- Brent crude hovered around $89.10 per barrel, while WTI crude traded near $85.90 per barrel.
- Traders are closely watching the Middle East tensions and OPEC+ supply decisions in the coming week.
Commodities outlook:
- Rising oil prices could impact India’s trade deficit and fuel inflation, while strong gold prices may encourage safe-haven inflows.
- Industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw mixed trends due to slowing Chinese demand.
Expert View: What Lies Ahead for Indian Investors
Market analysts predict limited upside in the near term, with earnings season, festive spending data, and global cues shaping investor behavior.
Key sectors to watch:
- IT and Pharma: May benefit from global demand recovery.
- FMCG: Expected to perform well during the festive season.
- Banking and Auto: Could see mixed trends amid interest rate expectations.
“The next few sessions will be crucial as investors monitor corporate earnings and global developments. Any progress in India-US trade talks or positive cues from Starmer’s visit could boost market sentiment,” said Vijay Chopra, Market Analyst.
Conclusion: Market Set for a Cautious Start
The Indian stock market is likely to witness a subdued or range-bound session today as investors weigh global economic signals and domestic cues.
While the Gift Nifty’s flat trend suggests limited early momentum, gold’s surge, dollar strength, and key diplomatic developments could influence market direction later in the day.
Overview: Asian Stock Markets Mixed as China and South Korea Observe Major Holidays
On Wednesday, October 8, 2025, the stock markets in China and South Korea remained closed due to national holidays celebrating the Mid-Autumn Festival and Chuseok, respectively. While these markets took a pause, other major Asian exchanges such as Japan, Hong Kong, and India remained open for trading.
The extended holiday in China, which began on October 1, marks one of the longest annual breaks in the Asian financial calendar. The closure covers both National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, often referred to as the Golden Week holiday. Markets are scheduled to resume trading on Thursday, October 9.
According to the stock market holiday calendar, Mainland China’s three major stock exchanges —
- Shanghai Stock Exchange,
- Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and
- Beijing Stock Exchange,
were shut from October 1 to October 8, as investors and businesses celebrated the dual festivities.
1. China’s Week-Long Market Holiday: National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival
The Chinese stock markets observed an eight-day holiday, combining the National Day celebrations with the Mid-Autumn Festival, one of the country’s most cherished traditional festivals.
- The National Day, commemorated on October 1, marks the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
- The Mid-Autumn Festival, also known as the Moon Festival, celebrates family reunions, prosperity, and good harvests.
The convergence of these two festivals created a Golden Week holiday from October 1 (Wednesday) to October 8 (Wednesday) — a period during which most businesses, government offices, and financial markets shut down.
Key Highlights:
- All major Chinese stock exchanges — Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing — remained closed.
- Bond and futures markets were also shut during the holiday period.
- Trading will resume on Thursday, October 9, 2025.
This marks the last official trading holiday in China for the calendar year 2025, following the Dragon Boat Festival holiday on June 2.
2. South Korea Observes Chuseok Holiday
The South Korean stock market also remained closed on October 8 in observance of Chuseok, a three-day harvest festival often compared to Thanksgiving in the West.
- Chuseok is celebrated on the 15th day of the eighth month of the lunar calendar, which coincided with early October this year.
- It’s a time when South Koreans return to their hometowns to honor ancestors, share traditional meals, and celebrate family unity.
Market Impact:
- The Korea Exchange (KRX), including the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets, remained closed.
- Trading activities are expected to resume on Thursday, October 9.
The holiday period typically leads to reduced trading volumes across Asian markets as investors from the region step away from active trading.
3. Other Major Asian Markets Remain Open
While China and South Korea enjoyed their respective holidays, other Asian markets were open and saw positive momentum following a World Bank report that raised the region’s economic growth forecast.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.4%, supported by strong performances in the technology and consumer goods sectors.
- The Topix Index advanced 0.62%, indicating broader optimism among Japanese investors.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures suggested a higher opening, as the city’s market continues to benefit from global fund inflows amid a recovering Chinese economy.
4. World Bank Upgrades Asia’s Growth Forecast
The World Bank revised its growth outlook for the East Asia and Pacific region, citing resilient domestic demand and improving global supply chain conditions.
- The regional growth projection was raised from 4.5% to 4.8% for 2025.
- The World Bank highlighted that despite challenges in China’s property sector, regional economies like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia continue to show robust performance.
Key Drivers Behind the Upgrade:
- Rising consumption in developing Asian economies.
- Infrastructure investment supported by government stimulus measures.
- Resilient export demand for electronics, machinery, and automobiles.
This optimistic outlook helped offset the muted trading activity caused by the holiday closures in China and South Korea.
5. Chinese Markets to Resume on October 9
Following the extended break, Mainland Chinese exchanges will reopen on Thursday, October 9.
Market analysts expect high volatility during the reopening session as investors catch up on global market developments, commodity price changes, and economic data releases from the past week.
Possible Market Scenarios Post-Holiday:
- Increased liquidity inflows as traders return from the long break.
- Sectoral rotations likely in tech, EV, and consumer goods segments.
- Potential influence from global oil prices, gold surge, and US interest rate signals.
China’s A-share market is expected to witness a surge in trading volume, similar to patterns seen after previous Golden Week holidays.
6. Impact on Global Investors and Trading Volumes
The closure of major Asian markets like Shanghai and Seoul typically results in lower overall trading volumes across the region. Global investors often divert attention to markets that remain open, such as Japan, Hong Kong, and India.
- Foreign portfolio inflows to India often rise modestly during this period as investors seek liquidity.
- However, overall Asian market turnover dips due to reduced cross-border trading activity.
- Commodity and forex markets see moderate volatility as trading activity shifts toward Western exchanges.
Investor Strategy:
Global fund managers tend to rebalance portfolios ahead of major Asian holidays, ensuring exposure is minimized to avoid liquidity traps.
7. Market Sentiment in Japan and Hong Kong
Despite China’s market holiday, Japan and Hong Kong saw steady upward trends on Wednesday.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 continued its rally, driven by technology exporters benefiting from a weaker yen.
- Topix index recorded gains in industrial and banking shares, reflecting domestic economic resilience.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures indicated a positive opening, fueled by tech and real estate stocks.
Key Performers:
- Japanese chip manufacturers and automakers saw renewed investor interest.
- Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech giants such as Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent are expected to gain traction once Chinese markets reopen.
8. Regional Economic Outlook: Balancing Festivity and Fiscal Growth
The Mid-Autumn Festival and Chuseok are not only cultural highlights but also significant economic events, driving domestic consumption and travel spending in their respective nations.
In China:
- Retail and tourism sectors experience a major boost during Golden Week.
- The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported record travel bookings, signaling strong post-pandemic recovery in consumer sentiment.
In South Korea:
- Chuseok sales of traditional foods, gifts, and travel packages lift retail revenues.
- Domestic spending data during this period often serves as an indicator of consumer confidence for Q4.
These holidays, while pausing financial trading, contribute positively to economic activity, particularly in the hospitality, transport, and e-commerce sectors.
9. Expert Opinions: What to Expect Next
Market strategists believe that the resumption of Chinese trading on October 9 could set the tone for the next phase of Asian market momentum.
Rohit Bansal, Senior Market Analyst, said:
“The return of Chinese investors after a long holiday often leads to sharp price movements, especially in commodity-linked and tech-heavy stocks. With gold nearing record highs and the US dollar strengthening, Asian equities could see a mixed start.”
Mika Tanaka, Tokyo-based economist, added:
“Japan’s market momentum could benefit further if Chinese consumer demand rebounds post-holiday. The World Bank’s upgraded forecast adds confidence to regional investors.”
10. Key Takeaways for Investors
- China’s stock markets (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) are closed from Oct 1–8 for National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival.
- South Korea’s markets are closed for Chuseok on October 8.
- Trading resumes October 9, marking the last Chinese market holiday of 2025.
- Japan and Hong Kong saw gains amid improved growth forecasts.
- The World Bank’s positive outlook boosted confidence in Asian equities.
- Investors expect volatility and sectoral shifts when Chinese markets reopen.
Conclusion: Calm Before the Reopening Surge
As the Chinese and South Korean markets take a break for festive celebrations, other Asian indices continue to trade with optimism. The World Bank’s growth upgrade and stable performances in Japan and Hong Kong suggest that Asia’s economic foundation remains strong.
With Chinese markets reopening on October 9, investors should prepare for increased volatility, potential reallocation of funds, and fresh opportunities across the tech, consumer, and manufacturing sectors.
The Mid-Autumn Festival and Chuseok underscore the balance between tradition and trade, reminding investors that while markets pause, economic growth in Asia continues to shine.
Top Trending Points
- 🏮 China and South Korea closed for festivals — trading resumes October 9.
- 📈 World Bank raises Asia’s 2025 growth forecast to 4.8%.
- 🇯🇵 Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.4%, Topix up 0.62%.
- 💹 Hong Kong Hang Seng futures indicate positive opening.
- 💰 Investor focus shifts to India, Japan, and Hong Kong during China’s closure.
