The Indian stock market is expected to start the week on a cautious note, with Sensex and Nifty 50 likely to open flat on Monday, reflecting mixed global market cues. While Wall Street ended last week on a high, led by technology stocks, Asian markets remained mixed ahead of key global events.
Investors will be closely tracking US-India trade talks, updates on tariffs, inflation data, geopolitical developments, and Q1 earnings results. Additionally, the outcome of the upcoming US President Donald Trump – Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting could influence global market sentiment.
1. Asian Markets Show Mixed Trends
Asian equity markets began the week on a mixed note, with investors showing caution ahead of the US–China tariff truce deadline.
- MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was marginally higher.
- Kosdaq remained flat.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures indicated a slightly higher opening.
Market analysts believe that any breakthrough in trade discussions could improve risk sentiment in Asian markets, indirectly benefitting Indian equities.
2. Gift Nifty Indicates Flat Start
Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,447 level, showing a premium of nearly 6 points over the Nifty futures’ previous close.
This suggests a flat-to-mildly positive opening for Nifty 50 on Monday.
Traders may remain cautious in early trade as they await fresh domestic and global triggers before committing to large positions.
3. Wall Street Closes Higher – Nasdaq Hits Record High
The US stock market ended Friday on a strong note, with the Nasdaq Composite achieving its second consecutive record close. Technology stocks led the rally, reflecting strong earnings optimism.
Wall Street closing figures (Friday):
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +206.97 points (+0.47%) at 44,175.61
- S&P 500: +49.45 points (+0.78%) at 6,389.45
- Nasdaq Composite: +207.32 points (+0.98%) at 21,450.02
Weekly performance:
- S&P 500: +2.4%
- Dow Jones: +1.3%
- Nasdaq: +3.9%
This strong US performance could provide some support to Indian equities, particularly in the technology sector.
4. Focus on US-India Trade Talks & Tariff Updates
Investors in India will be monitoring trade negotiations between the US and India closely. Any positive announcement regarding tariff reductions could boost export-oriented sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and textiles.
Conversely, if tariffs are increased, sectors with high global exposure might face headwinds.
5. Crude Oil Prices in Focus
Crude oil prices remain an important factor for Indian market sentiment, as India is a major oil importer. Higher crude prices can lead to inflationary pressures and negatively impact sectors like airlines, logistics, and paint manufacturers.
A stable or declining oil price trend could help ease inflation concerns and support market stability.
6. Q1 Earnings Season to Set the Tone
The Q1 FY26 earnings season is underway, and early results from major companies will be closely analyzed by market participants.
Analysts expect companies with strong domestic earnings visibility to outperform, especially those with minimal exposure to tariff-related risks.
Sectors to watch during this earnings season:
- Banking & Financial Services – Credit growth and NPA trends
- IT Services – Impact of US and European demand trends
- Consumer Goods – Volume growth amid inflation pressures
- Automobiles – Sales recovery and rural demand revival
7. Key Global and Domestic Triggers This Week
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd., suggests that investors may adopt a defensive-to-neutral stance this week, prioritizing companies with stable domestic revenues and limited exposure to global volatility.
Important triggers to watch:
- US Inflation Data Release – Could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions
- Foreign Fund Flows (FII/DII activity) – Impacting liquidity in Indian markets
- Geopolitical Events – Especially the Trump-Putin meeting and US-China trade updates
- Domestic Macroeconomic Data – CPI inflation, industrial output figures
- Commodity Price Trends – Especially crude oil and gold
Market Outlook
Given the mixed Asian market signals, flat Gift Nifty cues, and strong US market performance, the Indian stock market may see a range-bound to mildly positive opening on Monday.
However, volatility could increase later in the week as multiple economic data releases and geopolitical developments unfold.
Key support and resistance levels for Nifty 50:
- Support: 24,500
- Resistance: 24,700 – 24,900
If Nifty breaks above 24,700, a further rally toward 24,900 is possible. On the downside, a breach of 24,500 could trigger selling pressure.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Adopt a cautious trading approach at the start of the week.
- Focus on quality stocks with strong earnings visibility.
- Keep a close eye on global economic data and tariff-related news.
- Maintain some cash reserves to take advantage of market corrections.
- Be prepared for short-term volatility due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market is entering the week with mixed global cues and cautious optimism. While US markets have shown strength, Asian markets remain uncertain ahead of major economic events. With key triggers like US inflation data, crude oil prices, trade talks, and Q1 earnings results, the week ahead promises to be eventful for traders and long-term investors alike.
Maintaining a balanced portfolio strategy, focusing on low-volatility sectors, and keeping track of global macroeconomic indicators will be crucial in navigating market movements over the coming days.
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