Gold Prices Likely to Trade Between ₹95,500–₹98,500 in Near Term
Analysts Maintain Bullish Outlook Despite Dollar Strength and Tariff Jitters
Gold prices are witnessing a temporary dip due to global macroeconomic pressures, including a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. However, experts maintain a bullish medium to long-term outlook for the precious metal, supported by persistent inflation, robust central bank buying, and escalating geopolitical risks.
📉 Gold Prices Fall Amid Stronger Dollar and Treasury Yields
On Wednesday, gold prices dropped to their lowest levels in over a week. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors including:
A firmer U.S. dollar, which reached a two-week high
Elevated 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, nearing a three-week peak
Renewed tariff threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump
Strength in the Indian rupee, adding pressure on local gold prices
Latest Gold Price Updates (As of 06:24 GMT):
Spot gold: Down 0.4% at $3,286.96/oz
U.S. gold futures: Down 0.7% to $3,295
MCX August 5 gold contract: Down 0.30% to ₹96,178/10g
💬 Tariff Threats Spark Market Volatility
Fresh protectionist rhetoric from Trump has created significant ripples in global markets. The former U.S. President has vowed to:
Impose a 50% tariff on imported copper
Revive duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals
Enforce 10% tariffs on imports from BRICS nations
Notify 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, about tariff hikes effective August 1
Impact on Gold:
Usually, geopolitical and trade tensions boost gold’s safe-haven appeal.
However, investors are currently shifting toward U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, reducing immediate demand for gold.
📊 Technical View: Key Support and Resistance Levels
According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, the recent gold price decline is also influenced by domestic currency movements.
“The rupee’s appreciation by 0.23% intensified the fall in Indian bullion prices,” he said.
Technical Levels:
Support:
International: $3,290/oz
Domestic: ₹95,500/10g
Resistance:
International: $3,330–$3,350/oz
Domestic: ₹97,500/10g
Gold is currently moving in a range-bound pattern, which may break depending on:
Upcoming U.S. trade developments
Any new tariff announcements
📅 Crucial U.S. Economic Data Ahead
The market is now awaiting key economic indicators from the United States, including:
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Unemployment Rate
These figures will be instrumental in:
Shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy
Influencing the short-term gold price trajectory
📈 Medium to Long-Term Gold Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite current headwinds, experts foresee a bullish trend in the medium to long term. According to Sandip Raichura, CEO of Retail Broking and Distribution & Director at PL Capital:
“Central banks globally are purchasing gold above 1,000 tons per annum, a trend unlikely to reverse.”
Structural Bullish Factors:
Global Central Bank Gold Buying
Inflation exceeding the U.S. Fed’s comfort zone
Geopolitical risks including trade tensions and war-related uncertainties
Medium-Term Outlook:
Expected range: $3,150–$3,500/oz
Long-Term Projection:
Potential to breach $3,700/oz, depending on economic and geopolitical developments Gold Rate in India Crashed: Yellow Metal Prediction For July 8
Gold Prices Tumble Across Carats; Analysts Expect Consolidation Between ₹95,500–₹97,500
Gold prices in India started the week on a sharp downward trend, causing widespread attention among traders and investors. With 24K gold rates crashing by ₹5,400 per 100 grams on Monday, and ₹540 per 10 grams, market sentiment appears cautious amid global uncertainties, including the U.S. trade tariff developments and macroeconomic updates.
📉 Gold Price Crash on July 8: Sharp Decline Across Carats
On Monday, July 8, Indian gold markets witnessed a notable decline across all carats. Here’s a look at the latest gold price drop in India:
Gold Price Decline Summary:
24K Gold:
₹5,400 down per 100 grams
₹540 down per 10 grams
22K Gold:
Approximate drop of ₹495 per 10 grams
18K Gold:
Price fall in line with market pressure
This dip in gold rates has caught the attention of both retail buyers and long-term investors, who are now looking for clarity on where prices may go next.
🔍 Why Did Gold Prices Crash?
Key Drivers Behind the Decline:
U.S. Trade Tariff Uncertainty:
The expiry of the 90-day U.S. tariff freeze is scheduled this week.
Market participants are waiting for clarity on whether Trump’s administration will extend or reimpose tariffs.
Strong U.S. Labor Market Data:
The U.S. added more jobs than expected last month, reinforcing the strength of its economy.
This data weakens the case for gold as a safe-haven asset in the immediate term.
Global Market Volatility:
Rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar are diverting funds from gold to other secure assets.
📊 Gold Technical Outlook: Price Range and Key Levels
According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities:
“Gold is likely to trade within a range of ₹95,500 – ₹97,500 per 10 grams in the near term.”
The technical analysis suggests a sideways movement within a defined price channel, pending any geopolitical or monetary policy trigger.
Key Technical Levels:
Support: ₹95,500 / $3,300
Resistance: ₹97,500 / $3,400
Breakout/Breakdown Possibility: A 2–3% move is expected upon breach of either range boundary.
💬 Expert Insight: What Market Leaders Are Saying
Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd (RSBL):
“Gold is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle. $3,300 (₹96,000) is strong support, while $3,400 (₹98,500) is strong resistance. A breach on either side could move prices by 2–3%.”
Additional Observations:
U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at sending over a dozen tariff-related letters this week.
During the July 4th ceremony, he signed a significant new policy bill, increasing trade-related uncertainty.
This detrimental U.S. policy is weakening investor confidence in traditional U.S. assets, which could benefit gold in the medium term.
🔮 Gold Price Prediction for July 8–Week Ahead
As uncertainty looms around trade and policy, experts expect a cautious gold price movement throughout the week.
Expected MCX Gold Range:
₹95,500 to ₹97,500 per 10 grams
Key Watch Points:
U.S. Fed Meeting Minutes
Tariff Decision Deadline Mid-Week
Global Inflation Trends
Central Bank Gold Purchases
Investors should brace for increased volatility, but also stay alert for potential buying opportunities if prices dip below key support zones.
🪙 Latest Gold Prices in Major Indian Cities (Per 10 grams on July 8)
City 24K Gold Price 22K Gold Price
Delhi ₹96,300 ₹88,300
Mumbai ₹96,150 ₹88,150
Chennai ₹96,800 ₹88,700
Bengaluru ₹96,500 ₹88,500
Kolkata ₹96,250 ₹88,250
Prices are subject to change based on global spot gold prices and currency fluctuations.
📈 Long-Term Gold Outlook Remains Bullish
Despite near-term pressure, market analysts remain optimistic about gold’s long-term trajectory. Strong demand from central banks, geopolitical risks, and sustained inflation continue to support the yellow metal’s value proposition.
Long-Term Projections:
Gold could breach ₹1,00,000 per 10 grams in the next 12 months
International prices may test $3,700/oz, depending on macroeconomic conditions
💡 Investor Tips for This Week
If you’re planning to invest in gold, here are a few things to keep in mind:
✅ Track Global Developments: Especially the U.S. tariff decisions and Fed meeting outcomes
✅ Wait for Breakout Confirmation: Don’t rush to buy or sell until price action confirms a breakout or breakdown
✅ Diversify Investments: Don’t rely solely on gold; mix it with other assets like equities or bonds
✅ Watch INR-USD Movement: The Indian rupee’s strength or weakness directly impacts gold import costs
📝 Conclusion: Stay Cautious but Ready
Gold prices in India have taken a sharp hit to begin the week, driven by global uncertainty and upcoming tariff deadlines. Analysts expect range-bound movement between ₹95,500 and ₹97,500 in the near term, with possibilities of sharp movement on either side.
For now, the market remains on high alert, watching closely how the U.S. administration, Federal Reserve, and global trade negotiations unfold. While the short-term outlook is cautious, the long-term fundamentals for gold remain robust, making this dip a potential buying opportunity for patient investors
