Despite regulatory curbs, China continues to tighten its grip on India’s solar energy sector. In a startling development, India’s imports of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells from China surged by a whopping 141% in FY25, even as government-imposed restrictions aimed at curbing imports of Chinese solar modules came into effect from April 1, 2024.
According to official trade data, imports of PV cells used for module assembly skyrocketed from 1.89 billion units in FY24 to 4.55 billion units in FY25. Meanwhile, imports of fully assembled solar modules dipped a mere 2%, underscoring the limited impact of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) order, which was designed to promote domestic manufacturing.
Solar Module Imports Barely Affected by ALMM
The ALMM order, reimposed in FY25 after being suspended during FY24, restricts the use of imported modules in most utility-scale and rooftop solar projects. However, solar module imports declined just 2%, from 35.98 million panels to 35.26 million, raising serious questions about the order’s effectiveness.
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) attributed this anomaly to “several exemptions” under the order. These include:
Projects where the final bid submission occurred before April 10, 2021
Net metering projects filed before October 2022
Captive “behind-the-meter” installations
Export-linked green hydrogen facilities
In a letter dated March 3, 2025, the MNRE directed state authorities to strictly enforce the ALMM provisions, except where exemptions apply.
China’s Dominance Grows in PV Cell Imports
While overall solar cell imports to India rose by 88%, from 2.69 billion units (Rs 15,335 crore) in FY24 to 5.06 billion units (Rs 13,905 crore) in FY25, China’s share alone increased from 70% to 90%, highlighting India’s continued dependence on the Chinese supply chain.
Strikingly, even as quantities surged, the value of imports decreased, signaling a drop in per-unit prices likely due to aggressive price undercutting—a form of dumping—by Chinese manufacturers.
Domestic Manufacturing Sees Steady Growth
The MNRE noted that India’s domestic solar module manufacturing capacity has risen from 38 GW in March 2024 to 91 GW, while solar cell capacity has improved from 9 GW to 25 GW. However, this still falls short of fulfilling the total domestic demand.
India has ambitious goals to scale up solar cell manufacturing to 100 GW by 2030, alongside 40 GW of wafer production capacity—a massive jump from the current wafer capacity of just 2 GW.
“Module manufacturing has taken off because ALMM for modules was introduced earlier. Now, with ALMM for cells expected in June 2026, we’ll see a similar wave of growth,” — Amit Paithankar, CEO, Waaree Energies Ltd
ALMM for Cells Coming in 2026
The ALMM order for solar PV cells is scheduled to come into effect from June 1, 2026. Industry leaders predict this move will drive significant growth in India’s cell manufacturing, much like the earlier ALMM did for module manufacturing.
However, implementation will face challenges, especially regarding cost competitiveness with Chinese imports.
China Accused of Price Dumping
Several Indian and global manufacturers have accused Chinese companies of dumping solar cells—selling them below production cost to gain market share.
“Dumping from China and its Belt and Road Initiative partners undermines India’s energy security goals,” — Sujoy Ghosh, MD, First Solar India
India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) is currently investigating anti-dumping charges against Chinese solar cell suppliers.
Heavy Losses in China Reflect Overcapacity
Financial reports from leading Chinese solar companies reveal massive losses, driven by overproduction and falling global demand. These figures validate claims that Chinese firms are offloading excess inventory at unsustainable prices.
“The financials of the largest Chinese solar manufacturers reflect systemic overcapacity and possibly below-cost pricing,” — Sujoy Ghosh
India Faces Wafer Equipment Hurdles
Another critical challenge lies in wafer manufacturing, a key step in the solar value chain. Most wafer-making equipment is dominated by Chinese firms, and India currently lacks the technical capability to build this machinery locally.
“It’s impractical to manufacture wafer equipment domestically right now. A G2G (government-to-government) solution may be necessary,” — Sumant Sinha, CEO, ReNew
Looking Beyond China: Collaborations and Alternatives
To reduce dependence, Indian companies are exploring strategic partnerships:
Premier Energies Ltd is establishing a 2 GW wafer plant via a joint venture with Taiwan’s SAS, a leading global wafer supplier.
First Solar India, which doesn’t rely on crystalline silicon (the dominant technology controlled by China), is scaling up its own ecosystem and recently added 3.3 GW capacity in just 19 months.
“We’ve built a self-reliant supply chain over 25 years, and we continue to invest outside the Chinese ecosystem,” — Sujoy Ghosh
Conclusion
India’s push to become self-reliant in solar energy faces significant hurdles—from China’s aggressive price strategies to limited local infrastructure for key inputs like wafers. While the ALMM policy has boosted module manufacturing, the influx of cheaper Chinese solar cells threatens to derail long-term domestic sustainability.
With new anti-dumping measures and stricter enforcement of ALMM for cells on the horizon, the government and industry players will need to double down on investment, international collaboration, and policy clarity to reduce China’s outsized role in India’s solar future
