The Indian stock market is set for a cautious start on Friday after a holiday-shortened week. With Gift Nifty trading lower, Wall Street ending at fresh record highs, and global markets showing mixed trends, traders are expected to witness a muted yet eventful session. On Wednesday, Indian equities staged a strong rebound after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept key policy rates unchanged and unveiled several supportive measures for the banking sector.

As investors prepare for the day, here are the seven key market triggers that will shape Sensex and Nifty 50 movements today.

1. Gift Nifty Today – Indicating a Weak Start

Gift Nifty was trading near the 24,942 mark, showing a discount of nearly 25 points compared to Nifty futures’ previous close.
This suggests a flat to negative opening for the NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex.
Traders are expected to remain cautious ahead of global cues and domestic macroeconomic factors.

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2. Wall Street Closes at Record Highs

The US stock market closed on a strong note overnight, with all three major indices touching record highs.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Jumped sharply, reflecting optimism in cyclical sectors.
S&P 500 Index: Continued its upward rally, led by technology and financial stocks.
Nasdaq Composite: Gained as Tesla, Nvidia, and other growth stocks rose.

The rally was driven by easing recession fears, solid economic data, and expectations of a soft landing for the US economy.

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3. Tesla Shares Surge – A Big Boost for Global Markets

Tesla’s stock registered impressive gains overnight, fueling optimism in EV (Electric Vehicle) and tech-linked sectors.

Tesla shares rose on strong delivery numbers and renewed demand optimism.
The rally lifted investor sentiment across global equity markets.
Analysts believe Tesla’s momentum could support the Nasdaq Composite in upcoming sessions.

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4. Asian Markets Open Higher

Asian equities are mirroring Wall Street’s positive close.

Japan’s Nikkei 225: Up by 1.36%
Topix Index: Gained 0.35%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures: Indicating a slightly lower open
China and South Korea: Markets closed due to holidays

Asian investors are watching US cues closely, with optimism prevailing despite lingering concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks.

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5. RBI Policy Boosts Sentiment

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% and maintained its monetary policy stance.

Key highlights from the RBI policy:

No change in repo rate – supports liquidity and growth.
Announced measures to strengthen banking sector capital buffers.
Positive outlook on inflation and GDP growth due to favorable monsoon trends.

This decision helped the Indian stock market snap its 8-day losing streak.

Sensex surged 715.69 points (0.89%) to close at 80,983.31.
Nifty 50 jumped 225.20 points (0.92%) to settle at 24,836.30.

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6. Festive Season Demand – Positive for Indian Economy

The festive season is expected to provide a demand boost across multiple sectors:

Automobiles: Strong sales expected during Navratri and Diwali.
FMCG and Retail: Higher consumer spending likely.
Banking: Festive loan offers could support credit growth.

Analysts believe the combination of accommodative RBI policy, favorable monsoon, and festive-led consumption will support market momentum in October.

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7. Outlook for Sensex and Nifty 50 Today

Market experts expect range-bound trading in today’s session due to:

Weak start indicated by Gift Nifty
Strong global cues from Wall Street
Festive-led optimism in domestic consumption

Expert View:

“We expect positive momentum to sustain, supported by an accommodative monetary policy, favourable monsoon season and festive-led boost in demand,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

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Broader Market Indicators

Apart from the seven overnight changes, here are some other factors influencing today’s trading session:

Crude Oil Prices

Brent crude remains stable around $93 per barrel, easing concerns of imported inflation.

Currency Market

Indian Rupee (INR): Expected to open flat against the US dollar.
Strength in the dollar index may keep pressure on emerging market currencies.

FII and DII Activity

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Turned net buyers in the previous session.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Continued to support markets with sustained buying.

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Key Takeaways for Traders

Cautious start expected – Gift Nifty in red.
Global cues remain strong – Wall Street and Asian markets supportive.
RBI policy supports growth – No rate hikes, liquidity comfort.
Festive season optimism – Demand-led boost across sectors.
Tesla rally adds global momentum – Tech stocks likely to remain in focus.

Indian Stock Market Today – Strategy for Investors

Short-Term Traders

Focus on banking, auto, and FMCG stocks.
Avoid aggressive positions in highly volatile counters.

Long-Term Investors

Accumulate quality large-cap stocks in financials, IT, and consumption-driven sectors.
Stay invested for festive season demand rally.

Risk Factors to Watch

Rising global bond yields.
Any surprise move from the US Federal Reserve.
Geopolitical tensions affecting crude oil and global supply chains.

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Conclusion

The Indian stock market today (October 3, 2025) is expected to witness a cautious yet optimistic start. While Gift Nifty signals a muted opening, global cues remain supportive with Wall Street hitting record highs and Asian markets trading positively. Domestically, the RBI policy decision, festive demand outlook, and strong FII flows provide a solid foundation for market resilience.

Investors should remain watchful of global developments, but overall sentiment continues to lean positive. The Sensex and Nifty 50 could consolidate with a positive bias in the coming sessions, supported by festive demand, accommodative monetary policy, and improving global cues.