The Indian stock market continues to remain on edge as investors closely track domestic monetary policy decisions, global cues, and geopolitical events. On Wednesday, October 1, 2025, the Gift Nifty, RBI policy meeting outcome, US government shutdown concerns, gold and crude oil prices, Asian market movements, and FII/DII flows are expected to influence trading sentiment on Dalal Street.
On Tuesday, the Indian markets extended their losing streak to the eighth consecutive session, with both Sensex and Nifty closing lower amid selling pressure. Analysts suggest that the markets are likely to remain range-bound until the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy review, where the consensus is that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged.
Below are the 10 key factors that changed for the stock market overnight and will shape investor behavior today.
1. Sensex and Nifty Close Lower for the Eighth Straight Session
- The Sensex declined by 97.32 points or 0.12%, settling at 80,267.62.
- The Nifty 50 slipped 23.80 points or 0.10%, closing at 24,611.10.
- Selling pressure persisted across banking, IT, and metal stocks.
- Broader markets were also weak, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Market Expert Take
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said:
“We expect the market to remain range-bound, tracking global cues, macro-economic data, and RBI policy outcome where a status quo on the repo rate is widely expected.”
2. RBI Monetary Policy: Repo Rate Status Quo Expected
- The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, will announce its policy decision today.
- Most economists expect the repo rate to remain unchanged at 6.50%, with the RBI maintaining its current stance of “withdrawal of accommodation.”
- The focus will be on the RBI’s commentary regarding:
- Inflation outlook
- GDP growth projections
- Liquidity conditions in the banking system
Why It Matters for Stock Market
- Rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, automobiles, and infrastructure will see heightened activity post-policy announcement.
- Any hawkish tone may weigh on equity markets, while a dovish stance could lift investor confidence.
3. Gift Nifty Signals Muted Opening
- Gift Nifty was trading around 24,773, a discount of nearly 5 points compared to Nifty futures’ previous close.
- This indicates a flat to muted start for the Indian stock market indices today.
Implication
- Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-watch approach until clarity emerges from the RBI policy.
- Market volatility may remain subdued in early trade.
4. Asian Market Trends
Asian markets gave mixed signals this morning, reacting to global developments and US cues:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.66%
- Topix Index declined 1.52%
- South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.57%
- Kosdaq gained 0.77%
- China and Hong Kong markets remained closed for a holiday
Why Indian Investors Should Care
- Asian market sentiment influences foreign fund flows into India.
- A weak Nikkei and Topix may weigh on Asian risk appetite, while gains in Kospi and Kosdaq could provide some relief.
5. US Market Updates: Wall Street Rises Ahead of Shutdown Fears
- Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday as investors remained hopeful of a last-minute resolution to avoid a US government shutdown.
- Dow Jones rose 0.4%
- S&P 500 gained 0.6%
- Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8%
Impact on Indian Market
- Positive Wall Street cues often spill over into Asian and Indian equities.
- However, if the shutdown materializes, risk-off sentiment could return, impacting FII inflows.
6. US Government Shutdown Concerns
- The US is on the brink of a government shutdown due to budget disagreements.
- If unresolved, federal services could face disruption, impacting global investor sentiment.
Why It Matters for India
- A prolonged shutdown could trigger:
- Global market volatility
- Safe-haven demand for gold
- Weakness in equities and riskier assets
7. Gold and Silver Prices
- Gold December futures on MCX were trading higher at ₹1,17,550 per 10 grams, supported by safe-haven demand.
- Silver December futures rose to ₹1,44,200 per kg, touching a fresh record high.
Impact on Stock Market
- Rising gold prices indicate investor caution.
- Jewellery and export-related sectors may see volatility.
8. Crude Oil Price Movement
- Brent crude was hovering around $92 per barrel, while WTI crude traded near $89 per barrel.
- Rising crude prices are a concern for India due to its heavy reliance on imports.
Stock Market Impact
- Higher crude prices may hurt sectors like aviation, paints, chemicals, and OMCs (Oil Marketing Companies).
- However, upstream oil companies could benefit.
9. FII and DII Activity
- On Tuesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in Indian equities, extending their selling streak.
- Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, were net buyers, providing some cushion to markets.
Data Watch
- Sustained FII outflows could continue to pressure indices.
- Strong DII support is needed to stabilize sentiment.
10. Rupee Movement Against Dollar
- The Indian Rupee traded cautiously against the US Dollar amid global uncertainty and higher crude prices.
- Investors are monitoring RBI intervention and foreign fund flows for direction.
Implication for Markets
- A weaker rupee impacts import-heavy sectors like aviation and oil, but benefits export-driven sectors like IT and pharma.
What to Expect from the Indian Stock Market Today
Based on the above 10 cues, here’s what traders should expect on Wednesday:
- Muted to flat opening as indicated by Gift Nifty.
- Volatility likely post RBI policy announcement.
- Range-bound movement unless global cues provide a major trigger.
- Key levels to watch:
- Nifty support at 24,500
- Nifty resistance at 24,850
- Sensex support at 80,000
- Sensex resistance at 80,700
Expert Views on Market Outlook
- Siddhartha Khemka, Motilal Oswal: Markets will remain range-bound until RBI policy clarity.
- Vinod Nair, Geojit Financial Services: FII selling remains a key risk; investors should focus on domestic fundamentals.
- Anand James, Geojit Financial: Traders should stay cautious around global uncertainty and policy decisions.
Stock Market Strategy for Investors Today
Short-Term Traders
- Avoid aggressive positions before RBI policy.
- Focus on defensive sectors like FMCG, IT, and pharma.
Long-Term Investors
- Use market dips to accumulate quality stocks.
- Keep an eye on banking and real estate post-RBI decision.
Sectors to Watch
- Banking & Financials – Sensitive to repo rate outcome.
- Metals & Energy – Impacted by crude and global demand trends.
- IT & Pharma – Likely beneficiaries of weaker rupee.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market today (October 1, 2025) is expected to witness cautious trading as investors await the RBI monetary policy outcome. While global cues, particularly the US government shutdown fears and gold price movement, add to volatility, domestic institutional support and RBI commentary will be crucial in shaping market direction.
Investors should brace for a range-bound yet volatile session, keeping a close watch on key levels and sector-specific movements.
