The Indian stock market is expected to remain under pressure on Thursday, September 25, as Nifty 50 and Sensex may extend losses for the fifth consecutive session. Weak cues from global markets, coupled with cautious derivatives positioning, are likely to weigh on investor sentiment.
Global Market Trends Impacting Indian Equities
Asian and US markets saw a sharp decline in the last trading session as investors remained concerned about inflation data, rising bond yields, and fears of delayed interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. This global weakness has spilled over to the Indian market, with Gift Nifty trends signaling a negative opening.
- The Gift Nifty was trading near 25,071 levels, showing a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
- Global uncertainty is expected to trigger selling pressure in heavyweight sectors such as banking, IT, and energy.
Previous Session Recap: Nifty 50 and Sensex Performance
On Wednesday, both Sensex and Nifty 50 witnessed extended selling pressure, marking the fourth straight session of losses.
- Sensex closed 386.47 points lower, or 0.47%, at 81,715.63.
- Nifty 50 settled 112.60 points down, or 0.45%, at 25,056.90.
- Broader market indices underperformed, with mid-cap and small-cap stocks facing heavy selling.
This consistent decline indicates that traders remain cautious amid global uncertainty and muted domestic triggers.
Nifty 50 Today: Key Resistance and Support Levels
According to derivatives market data, Nifty 50 is expected to trade within a tight range, with strong resistance and immediate support levels.
- Strong resistance at 25,500: Fresh open interest (OI) addition of 1.12 crore contracts at the 25,500 strike price makes this level a strong ceiling for Nifty 50.
- Immediate support at 25,000: A significant Put OI buildup of 1.14 crore contracts suggests that 25,000 remains a crucial support zone.
- Market analysts believe that unless Nifty 50 breaks this range decisively, a range-bound phase is likely in the short term.
Bank Nifty Outlook: Pressure on Financials
The performance of Bank Nifty is also under the spotlight, as financial stocks have a heavy weightage in benchmark indices.
- Bank Nifty is expected to face resistance around 53,200 levels, while support lies at 52,400 levels.
- Rising bond yields and cautious stance from global investors could keep banking stocks volatile.
- Traders are advised to keep a close watch on HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank for directional cues.
Derivatives Data: What the OI Positions Indicate
Market positioning in the derivatives segment reflects cautious undertones.
- The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) slipped to 0.78 from 0.86, highlighting that call writers are dominating the market.
- This suggests bearish sentiment and hints at limited upside potential in the near term.
- The buildup of OI at near-the-money strikes indicates indecisiveness among traders, signaling a likely sideways trend.
Expert Views on Sensex and Nifty 50
Market analysts and research firms remain cautious about the immediate outlook for Indian equities.
“The buildup of fresh call OI at 25,500 level and heavy put writing at 25,000 reinforces the short-term trading range for Nifty. Sentiment remains bearish, and unless strong global triggers emerge, the market may stay under pressure,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.
Experts suggest that traders should focus on sector-specific opportunities rather than chasing index momentum in the current scenario.
Key Factors Driving Indian Stock Market Today
Several domestic and international triggers are expected to influence Nifty 50 and Sensex movements on September 25:
- Global market weakness after US Fed rate concerns.
- Foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows due to global risk aversion.
- Rupee volatility against the US dollar.
- Crude oil price trends impacting inflation outlook.
- Quarter-end profit booking by traders.
Trading Strategy for September 25
With Sensex and Nifty 50 under pressure, market experts recommend a cautious trading approach.
- Avoid aggressive long positions until clear trend reversal signals emerge.
- Focus on defensive sectors such as FMCG, pharma, and utilities.
- Short-term traders may consider selling near resistance (25,500 for Nifty) and covering near support levels (25,000).
- Keep strict stop-loss orders to manage volatility.
Stocks to Watch Today
Certain large-cap and mid-cap stocks are likely to remain in focus today:
- Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Infosys – may drive index direction.
- PSU banks and IT stocks could witness higher volatility.
- Auto and FMCG stocks may see buying interest due to festive demand expectations.
Conclusion: Nifty 50 and Sensex Likely to Remain Range-Bound
The Indian stock market outlook for September 25 suggests a weak opening with Sensex and Nifty 50 under pressure due to global cues. While 25,000 acts as immediate support for Nifty 50, the 25,500 mark remains a strong resistance zone.
In the absence of strong domestic triggers, traders are likely to see a range-bound and cautious market. Investors should adopt a wait-and-watch approach, focusing on stock-specific moves and global developments.
