Nifty 50 Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels
The Indian stock market is expected to see cautious optimism on Wednesday, as analysts point to strong technical support levels for the Nifty 50 index. According to Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst in Technical & Derivatives at Angel One, the range between 25,100–25,000 acts as a crucial support zone, aligning with the 20-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a bullish gap on daily charts.
- Support Zone: 25,100–25,000
- Intermediate Resistance: 25,300–25,350
- Key Hurdle: 25,449 (recent peak)
Krishan added that as long as Nifty sustains above this support, investors can explore long positions near these levels. On the upside, a decisive breakout above 25,449 could trigger fresh bullish momentum, potentially opening doors for record highs.
Key Takeaways for Traders
- Buy near 25,100–25,000 with stop-loss just below the zone.
- Watch for resistance around 25,350.
- Breakout above 25,449 may extend the rally further.
Global Market Trends and India–US Trade Relations
The broader market sentiment remains sensitive to global developments, especially the India–US trade talks and Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Trump’s Tariffs and Market Impact
Former US President Donald Trump’s stance on revising tariffs on Asian economies, including India, has fueled concerns about global trade flows. Tariff hikes could disrupt export competitiveness, especially in the IT, auto, and manufacturing sectors. Indian equities are likely to stay volatile until clearer trade policy directions emerge.
India’s Economic Data
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, highlighted mixed signals from India’s economy:
- Composite PMI for September slipped to 61.9 from 63.2 in August, showing a mild slowdown but still reflecting robust growth.
- Core sector output grew by 6.3% in August, a 13-month high compared to 3.7% in July. This was mainly supported by strong production in steel and coal, aided by a low base effect.
These numbers suggest India remains resilient despite external uncertainties, which could support investor confidence in the medium term.
H-1B Visa Fee Hike: Impact on Indian IT Sector
Another key factor influencing market sentiment is the H-1B visa fee hike proposed by the United States. Indian IT giants such as Infosys, TCS, Wipro, and HCLTech rely heavily on H-1B visas to deploy skilled professionals to the US.
- The increased costs could pressure profit margins.
- Companies may pass part of the burden onto clients.
- Short-term volatility in IT stocks is expected, though long-term fundamentals remain strong.
This move adds another layer of uncertainty for Indian equities, especially IT counters that have significant US exposure.
Expert View: Nifty 50’s Potential to Hit Record High
Despite near-term concerns, market experts remain optimistic about Nifty’s trajectory. Analysts believe the index could climb to new record highs if support levels hold and global headwinds ease.
HDFC Trustee Company’s research head recently suggested that Nifty 50 may hit a record high by FY26-end, supported by India’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, corporate earnings growth, and domestic liquidity inflows.
Stocks to Buy or Sell on Wednesday
Market analysts have identified 8 stocks to watch for intraday and short-term opportunities. These include a mix of buy and sell recommendations based on technical and fundamental analysis.
1. Usha Martin – Buy
- Strong momentum in steel wire ropes business.
- Positive chart structure.
- Target price: ₹1,025 with stop-loss at ₹970.
2. Ashok Leyland – Buy
- Robust commercial vehicle sales growth.
- Supported by auto sector recovery.
- Target price: ₹260 with stop-loss at ₹245.
3. Infosys – Sell (Cautious)
- H-1B visa fee hike concerns.
- Weakness in global IT spending.
- Target: ₹1,650 with stop-loss at ₹1,710.
4. Tata Motors – Buy
- EV segment growth and strong JLR demand.
- Positive sales outlook.
- Target price: ₹1,050 with stop-loss at ₹990.
5. Reliance Industries – Buy
- Strong refining margins and telecom growth.
- Target: ₹3,200 with stop-loss at ₹3,080.
6. HDFC Bank – Buy
- Consistent loan growth and stable asset quality.
- Target: ₹1,720 with stop-loss at ₹1,665.
7. Coal India – Buy
- Strong output growth in August.
- Beneficiary of power demand surge.
- Target: ₹520 with stop-loss at ₹495.
8. Wipro – Sell (Cautious)
- Weak US demand outlook.
- Pressure from visa fee hike.
- Target: ₹465 with stop-loss at ₹490.
Market Strategy for Investors
Given the current trade setup, investors and traders should adopt a balanced strategy:
- Positional Traders: Look for long opportunities near support zones.
- Short-Term Traders: Use strict stop-loss levels to manage volatility.
- Sector Focus: Auto, banking, and energy sectors are likely to outperform, while IT may see pressure.
- Global Watch: Track Trump’s tariff-related announcements and India–US trade negotiations closely.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market today presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. While Nifty 50 holds strong support near 25,000, the resistance at 25,350 and the hurdle at 25,449 remain crucial. Global uncertainties such as Trump’s tariffs and the H-1B visa fee hike may create short-term volatility, particularly in IT stocks.
However, India’s strong core sector growth, resilient PMI numbers, and supportive domestic liquidity indicate that the medium- to long-term outlook remains bullish. For Wednesday, traders should watch the 8 recommended stocks—with a buy bias on Usha Martin, Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, Reliance, HDFC Bank, and Coal India, while exercising caution on Infosys and Wipro.
