The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious start on Monday, September 16, as investors keep a close watch on ongoing India-US trade talks and global economic cues. After ending the previous session with minor losses, the market mood remains uncertain with mixed signals from the Gift Nifty, Nifty 50, and Sensex.
Market Overview: Indices End Lower After a Strong Rally
On Monday, the Indian equity market indices closed with small losses after an eight-session winning streak. The benchmark Nifty 50 closed at 25,069.20, down 44.80 points or 0.18%, while the Sensex slipped 118.96 points or 0.15% to end at 81,785.74.
- The Gift Nifty was seen trading near 25,158, indicating a flat opening for the day’s trade.
- This shows profit booking by investors at higher levels ahead of critical global developments.
- Market participants are closely watching updates from India-US trade negotiations, which could influence market sentiment and foreign fund inflows.
Sensex Today: Technical Outlook and Key Levels to Watch
The Sensex formed a small bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating indecisiveness among market participants. Analysts expect sideways movement unless a decisive breakout or breakdown happens.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for Sensex
Market experts have outlined crucial support and resistance levels that traders should monitor:
- Immediate Support: 81,500 and 81,400
- Critical Support: 81,000 (next downside target if support breaks)
- Immediate Resistance: 82,000 and 82,200
- Major Resistance Zone: 82,400 – 82,500
Market Analyst Mayank Jain (Share.Market – PhonePe Wealth) said,
“The Sensex is witnessing indecisive moves near the 82,000 mark. A strong breakout above 82,200 can reignite the uptrend, while a breakdown below 81,400 could trigger profit booking and push it to 81,000.”
Day Trading Strategy for Sensex
According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities:
- Support zones for day traders: 81,750 and 81,500
- Resistance zones for bulls: 82,000 and 82,100
- A sustained move above 82,100 could lift the index toward 82,400–82,500.
- On the downside, below 81,500, Sensex could test the 50-day SMA near 81,200.
This suggests non-directional intraday activity until a clear breakout emerges.
Nifty 50 Today: Chart Signals a Pause in Rally
The Nifty 50 has shown signs of consolidation after a robust upward move in the past eight sessions. The index has formed a Tweezer Top candlestick pattern, indicating a potential pause or minor correction before the next rally.
Technical View on Nifty 50
- Immediate Resistance: 25,150 – a crucial swing high from August 21
- Support Zones: 25,000 and 24,950
- Short-term trend: Sideways to mildly positive until a breakout above 25,150
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said,
“A small negative candle with minor upper and lower shadow has formed on the daily chart. This signals choppy movement near the 25,150 resistance zone. The market may take a breather before attempting the next upward leg.”
If Nifty crosses 25,150 decisively, it could accelerate towards 25,300–25,350 levels in the coming sessions. But if it slips below 25,000, a dip towards 24,850–24,800 cannot be ruled out.
Bank Nifty Outlook: Range-Bound Trade Likely
The Bank Nifty index is also expected to see range-bound movement as traders await clarity from global markets and domestic macroeconomic data.
- Support: 53,000 and 52,700
- Resistance: 53,800 and 54,200
- Breakout beyond this range could trigger sharp directional moves.
Banking stocks are likely to remain stock-specific, with PSU banks and private lenders showing mixed momentum.
India-US Trade Talks: Key Trigger for Market Sentiment
The ongoing India-US trade negotiations are a key macroeconomic factor influencing investor sentiment. Market participants are hoping for:
- Reduction in trade barriers and tariffs
- Improvement in bilateral investment flows
- Positive signals on technology transfer and supply chain cooperation
Any positive announcement from these talks could boost foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and support the equity market rally.
Conversely, lack of clarity or negative developments could dampen market sentiment, especially when the market is trading near all-time highs.
Global Cues: Eyes on US Fed Policy and Dollar Movement
Besides domestic factors, global market cues will play a critical role in shaping market direction:
- Investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, expected later this week.
- A possible rate cut by the Fed could boost global risk appetite and favor Indian equities.
- The US dollar index and bond yields will also influence FII behavior and currency volatility.
Market Strategy for Traders and Investors
With markets trading near record highs, volatility is expected to remain elevated. Here are some strategies for market participants:
For Traders
- Use tight stop-losses and book profits at higher levels.
- Focus on stock-specific opportunities rather than chasing index levels.
- Watch for breakouts above 82,100 (Sensex) and 25,150 (Nifty 50) for long positions.
For Investors
- Adopt a buy-on-dips approach for quality stocks.
- Avoid aggressive fresh buying until the market consolidates.
- Track sectors like banking, IT, FMCG, and energy, which could drive the next leg of the rally.
Outlook: Flat Opening Expected, Watch Key Levels
In summary, the Indian stock market is expected to open flat on September 16, with a cautious tone ahead of key global and domestic triggers.
- Nifty 50 faces resistance at 25,150, and a breakout above this could revive bullish momentum.
- Sensex needs to cross 82,100–82,200 for fresh upside, while 81,500 acts as a crucial support.
- The outcome of India-US trade talks and the US Fed policy decision will determine the market’s next big move.
Until then, range-bound trade and profit booking at higher levels are likely to dominate the session.
