The Indian stock market is expected to begin on a cautious note today, with investors eyeing key domestic and global cues, including the RBI monetary policy, Trump’s fresh tariff threats, and fluctuating commodity prices. Here are the eight major factors that are likely to impact Sensex and Nifty 50 today.
1. Gift Nifty Hints at Weak Start
The Gift Nifty index was seen trading around the 24,685 level, a discount of 23 points from Nifty futures’ previous close. This points to a negative to flat opening for the Indian stock market today.
Key Points:
- Gift Nifty at 24,685 level.
- Suggests subdued market sentiment.
- Reflects cautious investor mood ahead of RBI policy.
2. RBI Monetary Policy in Focus
All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which concludes today. The policy announcement, led by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, is expected to hold the repo rate steady amid inflationary concerns and global headwinds.
Market Expectations:
- No change in repo rate (currently at 6.50%).
- Crucial commentary on inflation and GDP growth outlook.
- Impact likely on banking, NBFC, and auto stocks.
3. Trump’s Tariff Threat on India
In a surprising development, former US President Donald Trump stated he may “substantially” increase tariffs on India within the next 24 hours. Trump criticized India’s energy partnership with Russia, calling it a national security threat to the West.
Potential Impact:
- Could sour India-US trade relations.
- Likely to hit export-focused sectors: IT, pharma, textiles.
- Adds geopolitical uncertainty to global markets.
4. Asian Markets Trade Mixed
Asian stock markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday morning. The movement was largely influenced by Wall Street’s overnight decline and rising global uncertainties.
Asian Indices Performance:
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): +0.12%
- Topix (Japan): +0.45%
- Kospi (South Korea): -0.45%
- Kosdaq (South Korea): -0.57%
- Hang Seng Index Futures (Hong Kong): Indicated weak opening
5. US Markets End Lower Amid Trade Concerns
The US stock market closed in the red overnight, as investors reacted to the fresh trade tensions and economic data releases. Major indices like the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 registered modest losses.
Key Takeaways:
- Trade war fears loom.
- US bond yields remain volatile.
- Tech and industrial stocks saw heavy selling.
6. Gold Prices Remain Volatile
Gold rates in India and globally witnessed slight fluctuations due to a stronger dollar and expectations of stable US interest rates. On the MCX, gold futures traded around ₹71,800 per 10 grams in early trades.
Why Gold Matters:
- Safe-haven demand still present.
- International prices affected by trade tensions.
- Domestic prices could rise if RBI adopts dovish tone.
7. Oil Prices Drop Slightly
Crude oil prices edged lower in early Asian trading as demand concerns from China and geopolitical fears overshadowed supply cuts by OPEC+. Brent crude was down 0.5% at around $84.70 per barrel.
Market Impact:
- Lower oil prices could benefit Indian economy.
- Positive for oil-importing companies like paint, aviation, and logistics sectors.
- Keeps India’s trade deficit in check.
8. US Trade Deficit Narrows in June
The US trade deficit narrowed by 16% in June, standing at $60.2 billion. This was driven by a decline in imports of consumer goods like electronics and apparel. Exports also fell slightly to $277.3 billion.
Market Implications:
- Reflects weakening demand in the US.
- May affect Indian exporters targeting the US.
- Seen as a signal of slowing global trade activity.
How the Market Closed Yesterday
On Tuesday, both benchmark indices—Sensex and Nifty 50—closed lower, marking a three-losses-in-four-sessions streak. Market sentiment was dampened by global volatility and caution ahead of the RBI policy.
Closing Stats:
- Sensex: Closed 357 points down.
- Nifty 50: Ended below the 24,700 mark.
- Broader markets also underperformed.
Sectors to Watch Today
Likely Gainers:
- FMCG stocks on inflation easing.
- Oil marketing companies (OMCs) due to lower crude prices.
Likely Under Pressure:
- Exporters amid tariff concerns.
- Banking stocks on RBI tone.
What Should Investors Do?
Strategy for Traders:
- Wait for RBI policy outcome before taking fresh positions.
- Use dips to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks.
Strategy for Long-term Investors:
- Stay focused on earnings, valuations, and macro trends.
- Monitor US-India trade developments closely.
Final Word
The Indian stock market today is set to remain range-bound and cautious, influenced by the RBI’s monetary stance, Trump’s trade rhetoric, and ongoing global market volatility. While domestic fundamentals remain strong, short-term sentiment could remain shaky due to external headwinds.
