Indian Stock Market Likely to Open Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues
The Indian stock market is expected to start on a cautious note on Monday, July 28, following global uncertainty and domestic weakness in benchmark indices. The Nifty 50 and Sensex today are likely to open flat or with marginal losses, as indicated by the early trends in Gift Nifty. Traders and investors should brace for volatile intraday movement as the markets react to global cues and technical indicators.
Gift Nifty Signals a Muted Opening
What is Gift Nifty Suggesting for Today?
- The Gift Nifty was trading around the 24,832 level, showing a discount of 18 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
- This suggests a tepid start for Indian equity markets today.
- Nifty 50 may struggle to regain momentum unless a strong upside breakout occurs.
Previous Session Recap: Nifty 50, Sensex Ended with Sharp Losses
How Did Markets Perform on Friday?
On Friday, July 26, the Indian stock market witnessed a significant correction as both benchmark indices closed sharply lower:
- Sensex crashed 721.08 points (0.88%), settling at 81,463.09.
- Nifty 50 dropped 225.10 points (0.90%), ending at 24,837.00.
- The Nifty 50 fell below the crucial 24,900 support zone, triggering bearish sentiment.
Technical Analysis: Nifty 50 Forms Bearish Pattern
Bearish Signals on the Daily and Weekly Charts
Technical indicators show increased weakness in the near term:
- Nifty 50 formed a large bearish candle on the daily chart.
- It broke the key support level of 24,880, indicating potential downward momentum.
- On the weekly chart, the index slipped by 0.53%, breaking a three-week winning streak.
- The relative strength index (RSI) is also cooling off from overbought levels.
Expert Commentary
“The earlier buy-on-dip strategy may now shift to sell-on-rise, unless the Nifty 50 reclaims and sustains above 25,200, which is critical to resume the uptrend,” said Amit Mehra, Senior Technical Analyst.
Bollinger Band Support Could Trigger Short-Term Bounce
Can Nifty Bounce Back from Current Levels?
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in, stated that:
“The Nifty 50 has closed near the lower Bollinger Band, which often acts as short-term support. This could lead to an intraday bounce, though sustainability remains uncertain.”
Global Market Cues: Mixed Sentiment Weighs on Risk Appetite
U.S. and Asian Markets in Focus
- U.S. markets ended mixed last week with concerns over interest rate cuts and weak employment data.
- Dow Jones posted marginal gains while Nasdaq remained flat.
- In Asia, markets in Japan, Hong Kong, and China are trading sideways ahead of central bank meetings and economic data.
Key Global Factors to Watch
- Federal Reserve’s July meeting and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.
- U.S. jobs data due this week, with forecasts of 60,000 new jobs.
- Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and major economies.
- Global crude oil price movements.
Key Levels to Watch for Nifty 50 and Sensex Today
| Index | Support Levels | Resistance Levels |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,700 / 24,500 | 25,000 / 25,200 |
| Sensex | 81,000 / 80,700 | 82,000 / 82,300 |
Sector Watch: IT, Pharma, and FMCG in Focus
Which Sectors Can Outperform Today?
With market sentiment turning cautious, defensive sectors may gain investor attention:
- IT Stocks: Stable global outlook may support tech majors.
- Pharma: Defensive buying could emerge amid broader volatility.
- FMCG: Consumer staples likely to attract safe-haven buying.
Sectors Under Pressure
- Banking and Financials: Profit booking may continue due to overvaluation concerns.
- Auto and Realty: Sensitive to interest rates and macro indicators.
Stock-Specific Action to Watch
- Reliance Industries: May remain in focus post quarterly earnings.
- HDFC Bank: Consolidation likely after recent underperformance.
- Infosys and TCS: Expected to show resilience amid global IT demand.
Trading Strategy for July 28
Intraday and Swing Trade Tips
- Avoid aggressive long positions until Nifty holds above 25,000 decisively.
- Consider hedging strategies using options to reduce downside risk.
- Use support zones near 24,700 for limited-risk intraday buying.
- Sell on rise near 25,000–25,200 for quick profits unless breakout sustains.
Conclusion: Volatility Ahead, Caution Advised
The Indian stock market may see a subdued opening on July 28, as indicated by Gift Nifty trends and technical chart patterns. With global markets offering mixed cues and domestic indices showing bearish breakdown, traders are advised to stay cautious.
Key Takeaways
Traders should adopt a range-bound strategy with strict stop-losses.
Nifty 50 needs to hold above 25,000 to revive bullish momentum.
Volatility may remain high due to Fed meeting and jobs data.
