📉 Indian Stock Market Weekly Recap: Sensex and Nifty Extend Losses
Market Closes Lower for Third Straight Week
The Indian stock market closed in red on Friday, July 18, 2025, marking the third consecutive weekly decline. Major benchmark indices—BSE Sensex and Nifty 50—ended near their weekly lows, highlighting persistent weakness in investor sentiment.
- Nifty 50 ended at 24,968.40, down by 143 points or 0.57%
- Sensex settled at 81,757.73, down 502 points or 0.61%
- Nifty dropped below the 25,000 mark, a crucial psychological level
- In the last three weeks, the Sensex has lost over 2,300 points or nearly 3%, while the Nifty 50 saw a similar decline
Axis Bank Drags Down Indices After Weak Results
Market participants reacted negatively to Axis Bank’s Q1 results, which disappointed the Street.
“Markets edged lower on Friday, losing over half a percent, primarily due to weak earnings. A sharp decline in Axis Bank following its results made participants cautious ahead of upcoming earnings from HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Reliance,” said Ajit Mishra, Senior VP at Religare Broking.
🔍 Key Stock Market Triggers for the Coming Week
Let’s take a look at the top stock market triggers that investors will watch closely:
1. 🛃 US-India Bilateral Trade Deal Negotiations
Fifth Round of Talks Concluded in Washington
- The fifth round of discussions on the proposed India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) concluded on July 17
- The talks were held over four days in Washington D.C., spearheaded by Rajesh Agrawal, India’s chief negotiator and special secretary in the commerce department
What to Expect From the Trade Pact?
- The India-US BTA aims to resolve lingering trade disputes and boost bilateral investment
- Key sectors under discussion: technology transfer, digital trade, agricultural exports, and pharma
Market Impact
- A positive outcome could boost investor confidence, strengthen the rupee, and attract FII inflows
- Export-oriented stocks and sectors like IT, Pharma, and Textiles may benefit
2. 💼 Q1 FY26 Earnings Season: Key Companies to Watch
Banking Heavyweights in Focus
- Axis Bank posted weaker-than-expected earnings, dragging down banking stocks
- All eyes now on HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, whose Q1 results are expected early next week
- Investors are also waiting for Reliance Industries’ Q1 earnings, due post-market on July 18
Expected Earnings Trends
- Banking sector expected to post stable credit growth but weaker margins
- IT sector may show flat revenues due to macro slowdown in the US and Europe
- FMCG and Auto companies likely to post healthy top-line growth backed by rural recovery
3. 🌏 Global Market Trends and US Fed Policy
Wall Street Direction Will Influence Indian Equities
- Recent US inflation data hints at fewer rate hikes by the Federal Reserve
- Investors are pricing in a rate cut by early 2026, triggering some optimism globally
Watch for These Events
- US GDP growth and weekly jobless claims
- FOMC member speeches
- Crude oil inventory data, which may impact OMCs like HPCL, BPCL, and IOCL
4. 🌐 FIIs and DIIs Activity: Will Foreign Inflows Return?
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) Turn Net Sellers
- FIIs offloaded equities worth ₹9,200 crore in July so far
- Weak earnings, valuation concerns, and global risk aversion drive selling pressure
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) Support Market
- DIIs, including mutual funds and insurance firms, have been net buyers
- Their buying spree has cushioned the downside in broader indices
5. 🔥 Technical Levels and Market Sentiment
Key Support and Resistance Zones for Nifty 50
- Immediate support: 24,900, followed by 24,750
- Resistance: 25,250, then 25,400
Sentiment Indicators
- Volatility Index (India VIX) rose by 4.5% week-on-week, signaling rising anxiety
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.92, indicating bearish bias
📊 Sectoral Snapshot: Which Sectors to Watch?
📈 Banking and Financials
- Axis Bank’s Q1 disappointment weighed on the sector
- Key triggers: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank earnings, and RBI commentary
🛢️ Energy and Oil & Gas
- Reliance’s results will be a crucial event
- Crude oil hovering around $85/barrel may pressure oil marketing companies
🚗 Auto Sector
- Expect steady growth driven by rural demand and festive buildup
- Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and M&M in focus
💊 Pharma
- Benefit from weak rupee and export recovery
- Top picks: Sun Pharma, Cipla, and Dr. Reddy’s Labs
🔄 Nifty and Sensex Weekly Performance Recap
| Index | Close (July 18) | Weekly Change | YTD Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,968.40 | -1.6% | +7.1% |
| BSE Sensex | 81,757.73 | -1.4% | +6.8% |
| Nifty Bank | 54,320.10 | -2.2% | +5.4% |
🔮 Expert Views on Indian Stock Market This Week
Ajit Mishra, Religare Broking
“The near-term market direction will be dictated by Q1 earnings, especially from banking and heavyweight sectors. The India-US trade talks could uplift sentiment if positive outcomes are announced.”
Rupak De, LKP Securities
“A breach below 24,900 on the Nifty could lead to further selling, while a move above 25,250 could revive short-term bullish sentiment.”
📅 Important Events to Watch Next Week
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| July 22 | HDFC Bank Q1 FY26 results |
| July 23 | ICICI Bank and Infosys earnings |
| July 24 | India Manufacturing PMI (Flash) |
| July 25 | US Initial Jobless Claims |
| July 26 | Reliance AGM (expected roadmap update) |
🧠 Investment Strategy for Retail Investors
✅ What to Do Now?
- Stay selective in large caps and focus on high-quality earnings stories
- Avoid aggressive buying until Nifty reclaims 25,250+ levels
- Watch earnings commentary for forward guidance
💡 Sectoral Preferences
- Bullish: Auto, Pharma, FMCG
- Neutral: IT, Infra
- Cautious: Banking, Metals
📌 Conclusion: Dalal Street Eyes Stability Amid Global and Domestic Cues
The Indian stock market enters the new week with a mixed outlook. While weak earnings and FII outflows continue to exert pressure, a positive resolution to the India-US trade deal and better-than-expected Q1 corporate results may revive sentiment.
Investors must closely monitor:
- Key corporate earnings (especially Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank)
- Global cues from Wall Street and Fed commentary
- Foreign fund flows and technical support levels
