Introduction: A Volatile Yet Hopeful Market Landscape
The Indian stock market remains in a phase of consolidation, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index hovering near record highs. On Wednesday, the index closed marginally higher at 25,212.05, up by 0.06%, while the Bank Nifty registered a gain of 0.28%, closing at 57,168.95.
Despite positive momentum in select sectors like FMCG, IT, and Realty, other segments such as Metals and Pharma remained under pressure. With Q1 earnings season in full swing, and key global macroeconomic data lined up, investors are on edge, anticipating a breakout from this tight range.
📊 Key Highlights of the Previous Trading Session
🔼 Market Performance on Wednesday
- Nifty 50 closed at 25,212.05, up 15.55 points or 0.06%
- Sensex added 135.48 points to close at 83,640.00
- Bank Nifty rose 158.80 points or 0.28%, closing at 57,168.95
- FMCG, IT, and Realty sectors led the gainers
- Metals and Pharma dragged the index down
- Mid-cap and small-cap indices ended flat
🔁 Sector-wise Performance
| Sector | Performance |
|---|---|
| FMCG | Positive |
| Realty | Positive |
| IT | Positive |
| Pharma | Negative |
| Metal | Negative |
| PSU Banks | Stable |
📉 Nifty 50 Technical Analysis: Trade Setup for Thursday
🔍 Near-Term Resistance and Support Levels
According to Vaishali Parekh, Vice President – Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:
- Immediate Resistance: 25,250
- Upside Targets: 25,500 and 25,700 (if resistance is breached)
- Crucial Support: 24,900 (EMA zone)
📌 Key Technical Indicators
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Neutral zone around 58-60
- MACD: Flat, with potential to cross bullish territory
- Bollinger Bands: Tightening – indicating upcoming volatility
- EMA (20-day): Holding strong at 24,900 – critical for bullish sentiment
📈 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with investors eyeing corporate earnings, global indicators, and institutional activity. A decisive breach above 25,250 could initiate a fresh rally.
🌐 Global Market Trends Impacting Indian Equities
🧾 Key Global Data Releases on Thursday
Global macroeconomic indicators due on Thursday include:
- Eurozone CPI Inflation
- UK Unemployment Rate
- US Retail Sales
- US Weekly Jobless Claims
🌎 Global Market Overview
- US Markets: Mixed performance; S&P 500 slightly positive
- Asian Markets: Nikkei, Hang Seng mildly higher
- European Markets: Awaiting inflation data; FTSE and DAX flat
- Crude Oil Prices: Brent trading around $84 per barrel
- US Dollar Index (DXY): Hovering around 104.3
These releases are expected to shape FIIs and global funds’ allocation strategies, directly influencing Indian market flows.
🧾 Q1 FY26 Earnings to Watch on Thursday
📌 Major Indian Companies Releasing Q1 Results Today
The market awaits key earnings that could influence sectoral trends and stock-specific moves:
- Axis Bank
- Wipro
- Jio Financial Services
- LTI Mindtree
- HDFC AMC
- Indian Hotels Company Ltd
- Federal Bank
- TVS Supply Chain Solutions
💹 Sectoral Outlook Based on Q1 Earnings
- IT Sector: Watch for Wipro and LTI Mindtree results amid margin pressure
- Banking Sector: Axis Bank and Federal Bank to set tone for private lenders
- Financial Services: Jio Financial’s performance will reflect NBFC momentum
- Hospitality: Indian Hotels likely to benefit from high summer occupancy
🛒 Stocks to Buy or Sell on Thursday: Expert Picks
Based on technical research from Choice Broking, Anand Rathi, and Prabhudas Lilladher, here are eight intraday stocks to watch:
1. 🏥 Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd (KIMS)
- Buy
- Target Price: ₹2,300
- Stop Loss: ₹2,190
- Rationale: Strong breakout above resistance, RSI trending upward
2. ⚡ Schneider Electric Infrastructure Ltd
- Buy
- Target Price: ₹680
- Stop Loss: ₹645
- Rationale: Bullish trendline breakout, supported by volume
3. 🧴 Pidilite Industries Ltd
- Sell
- Target Price: ₹2,740
- Stop Loss: ₹2,860
- Rationale: Facing resistance near 50 EMA, bearish RSI divergence
4. 🪵 Supreme Industries Ltd
- Buy
- Target Price: ₹5,520
- Stop Loss: ₹5,400
- Rationale: Sustained support at 20 DMA, bullish engulfing candle
5. 🏦 Indian Bank
- Buy
- Target Price: ₹535
- Stop Loss: ₹505
- Rationale: Breakout from flag pattern, strong volume support
6. 🥛 Heritage Foods Ltd
- Sell
- Target Price: ₹455
- Stop Loss: ₹480
- Rationale: Overbought zone, losing momentum, MACD showing bearish crossover
7. 🧬 LTI Mindtree
- Buy
- Target Price: ₹6,050
- Stop Loss: ₹5,820
- Rationale: Earnings expectations high, IT sector bounce
8. 💳 Jio Financial Services
- Buy
- Target Price: ₹370
- Stop Loss: ₹345
- Rationale: Pre-result momentum buildup, sectoral buzz
📥 Institutional Activity: FIIs vs DIIs
| Date | FIIs (₹ Cr) | DIIs (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| July 16 | +1,235 | -850 |
| July 15 | +890 | -745 |
| July 12 | -150 | +310 |
- FIIs are back with net buying seen for three consecutive sessions
- DIIs are turning cautious, booking profits in large caps
📌 Bond Market Update
🧾 India Bond Market Facing Liquidity Pressure
- Government bonds stuck in tight range
- Yield on 10-year benchmark bond: Around 7.08%
- Trading volumes are at multi-month lows as interest wanes
- RBI’s policy stance will be closely watched for further triggers
🔮 Market Outlook: What to Expect Ahead?
✅ Positive Triggers
- Strong Q1 results from BFSI, Auto, and FMCG sectors
- FII inflows continuing
- Low inflation and stable macro outlook
⚠️ Risk Factors
- Global inflation and interest rate shocks
- Weak earnings from IT, Pharma
- Overbought indices with limited upside
📈 Nifty Projections (Short-Term)
- Bullish Breakout Zone: Above 25,250
- Target Levels: 25,500 – 25,700
- Support Zone: 24,900 – 24,850
🧠 Expert Opinions: Strategy for Traders
🔹 Sumeet Bagadia, Choice Broking
“Nifty must breach 25,250 with volume to resume upward momentum. Wait-and-watch mode till then.”
🔹 Ganesh Dongre, Anand Rathi
“Traders should focus on stock-specific action, especially earnings-based plays.”
🔹 Shiju Koothupalakkal, Prabhudas Lilladher
“Banking and IT are likely to outperform if earnings remain robust. Midcaps may see some profit booking.”
📌 Final Takeaway: Top 10 Actionable Insights
Use strict stop-loss and avoid high-leverage positions
Watch for breakout above 25,250 on Nifty
Focus on stocks with strong earnings potential
Global data to set tone for the day’s momentum
Buy dips in Banking, FMCG, and IT sectors
Avoid fresh positions in Metals and Pharma
Track institutional flows – especially FIIs
Be cautious with short positions below 24,900
Intraday trades in Indian Bank, Schneider Electric look promising
Watch Q1 results of Axis Bank, Wipro closely
